The New England Patriots are in need of a pick-me-up after back-to-back losses all but ended their hopes of returning to the top of the AFC East, but they are playing just the team they need in the form of a COVID-ravaged Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Pats are 16.5-point favorites to put the Jags to the sword and potentially confirm their place in the playoffs in the process. A New England win is almost inevitable but covering that huge spread could prove tricky if Mac Jones continues trending in the wrong direction.
After a shambolic showing in last week’s loss to the New York Jets, Jacksonville is sat at 2-13 and has an 80% chance of making it back-to-back No.1 picks. The last player the Jaguars drafted with the number one pick will no doubt be desperate to see the back of this season and faces another tough afternoon against a Patriots defense that currently ranks third in DVOA total defense.
You can read our full game preview of Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots here, while below is our favorite same game parlay for the Week 17 matchup.
Under 41.5 points (-110)
Damien Harris to score a touchdown (-175)
Hunter Henry to score a touchdown (+170)
Parlay odds: +1411
Under 41.5 points (-110)
New England’s defense was shown up by Josh Allen and the Bills last time out so we should expect a response from them against a putrid Jaguars offense. Nearly the entire offensive line is on the COVID list for Jacksonville, while they also lost top running back James Robinson to a season-ending injury against the Jets.
That could leave Trevor Lawrence very exposed and even when he has had the pieces around him to put up a fight, he hasn’t been able to execute with the Jags scoring a combined 17 points against the last three teams they’ve faced that rank in the top 12 of DVOA.
Lawrence’s fellow 2021 draft class alumni Jones produced the worst performance of his professional career in the biggest spot against the Bills, going 14-of-32 for 145 yards and two interceptions. It remains to be seen whether Bill Belichick will put this game in Jones’ hands but my instincts suggest he’ll lean even more heavily on a rushing attack that gets Rhamondre Stevenson back this week. It could be a slow, painful demise for the Jags, who have seen the under go 6-1 in their last seven games as a road underdog.
Damien Harris to score a touchdown (-175)
Stevenson’s return from the COVID list means extra competition in the backfield for Damien Harris but I still like him to find the end zone given how well he’s run recently. Harris returned from a hamstring injury last week against the Bills and ran wild on them, posting figures of 18 carries for 103 yards and 3 touchdowns. Harris has now run for 214 yards and four touchdowns in his last two starts and with this Jaguars defense potentially missing Josh Allen, amongst others, he could punch some big holes through the visitors.
DVOA has Jacksonville as the 16th best run defense in the league but they looked nothing like that against the Jets in Week 16, giving up 273 yards on the ground. The Jags have allowed over 150 yards per game on average through the last three weeks and there might even be room for both Stevenson and Harris to put points on the board, if allowed by Belichick.
Hunter Henry to score a touchdown (+170)
The Patriots’ run game should dictate this game but that doesn’t mean there’s isn’t room for anyone else to get in on a beat down of the Jaguars. Hunter Henry is in need of a boost more than most on the New England roster having had a frustrating game against the Bills, hauling in 1 of 6 passes that came his way for 9 yards.
The week before, the former Chargers tight end had enjoyed a season-best showing in the loss to the Colts as he secured 6 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s been a reliable target for Jones for most of the year, forming that bond between rookie quarterback and tight end you so often see. Henry hasn’t put up huge numbers – he’s yet to crack 80 receiving yards – but he’s secured an impressive haul of touchdowns.
Henry has nine touchdowns this year, all of which have come in his last 11 games. He’s only finished without a TD four times during the 11-game stretch and he looks a safe choice at the odds available to get in the endzone.
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