Ricky Dimon
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The penultimate week of the 2022 NFL regular season is upon us. For many fantasy owners it means championships are on the line. Division championships could be clinched for some NFL teams, but for the most part teams are jockeying for playoff position and will have a last chance during the first week of 2023 if it doesn’t happen for them in Week 17.
With Thursday Night Football wrapping up for the season when the Cowboys beat the Titans and then another Monday Night Football affair coming up between the Bills and Bengals, there are 14 games taking place on Sunday. It’s more than enough to work with as we try to form a lucrative mega parlay. Let’s take a look.
Falcons -6.5 alternate spread (+142)
Chargers -6.5 (-110)
Steelers ML (+120)
Parlay odds: +916
For this parlay we are going with 1 underdog on the money line, 1 underdog against the spread and a favorite against an alternate spread. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Atlanta Falcons -6.5 alternate spread over Arizona Cardinals (+142)
The Falcons are sort of a better version of the Bears. That isn’t much of a compliment, but the point is that Atlanta loses a lot of close games but at least wins against more than a handful of other NFL teams (including Chicago…and this Arizona squad that it will face on Sunday). The Falcons head into Week 17 with a 5-10 record following last weekend’s competitive loss at Baltimore. Desmond Ridder has 2 starts under his belt now and he looked much improved in his second one. Now he is playing at home for the first time against a much softer opponent than the Saints and Ravens in the form of the Cardinals.
Arizona also has nothing to play for and Kyler Murray is out for the season with a torn ACL. The pick here is for Ridder to get his first NFL victory and to do so by at least a touchdown.
Be sure to check out all of our NFL predictions for Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 over Los Angeles Rams (-110)
This is an ideal sell-high point for the Rams following their 51-point outburst against the lifeless Broncos on Christmas Day. Needless to say, the Broncos stink. Baker Mayfield and company aren’t going to put up that kind of productive at the expense of anyone else – certainly not against a Chargers team that is going to the playoffs. The Bolts boast the best EPA/play in the NFL over the last 3 weeks, allowing just 11.3 points per game during that span. They still struggle to stop the run, ranked 28th in DVOA compared to 9th against the pass, but this is a good matchup for them against a Rams squad that doesn’t utilize the run game effectively at all.
Dating back to Week 14, the Rams’ offense is 7th in overall EPA/play but that drops to 18th in EPA/rush. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ offense looks to be operating at peak capacity since the return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Throw the ever-reliable Austin Ekeler into the mix and the Rams’ defense may be running in circles on Sunday. Look for the Chargers to win and cover.
Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers ML over Baltimore Ravens (+120)
With the Ravens playoff bound and the Steelers in contention, this matchup between AFC North rivals was flexed into Sunday Night Football. It’s always a fun matchup, but some of the luster will be missing if Lamar Jackson can’t play. Jackson missed practice once again on Thursday, so it looks like Tyler Huntley will get another start. Baltimore has won 2 of Huntley’s 3 starts under center, but he has hardly been the reason why. The Ravens didn’t top 17 points in any of those 3 games, and in their loss to the Browns, they only mustered 3 total points.
You can’t give Baltimore too much credit for beating up on a struggling Falcons team in Ridder’s second career start or for beating the Steelers by 2 points a few weeks ago in a game that saw Kenny Pickett concussed early. Mitch Trubisky proceeded to throw 3 interceptions. Even though the rematch is in Baltimore, don’t be surprised if Pickett leads Pittsburgh to an outright win.
Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
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