Kevin Davies
Show Bio
Only two weeks remain in the regular season and that means two things. One, the playoffs are right around the corner. And two, the lines have become very sharp. With that said, I still crafted a 3-leg mega parlay for Sunday’s action that pays out at over 10/1 odds.
Colts alternate spread -9.5 (+102)
Packers alternate spread -2.5 (+108)
Falcons ML (+172)
Parlay odds: +1042
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 (+102) over New York Giants
Ten straight losses. This season has felt like an eternity for Giants fans. The silver lining from this horrific season is that New York is currently slated to get the first overall pick in the upcoming Draft. The team desperately needs a franchise quarterback and they will likely have their choice of college stars next April. As for now, New York’s goal for the final two games should be to lose. There’s no reason to win and ruin a chance at the first overall pick and I think that starts with a blowout loss to the Colts in Week 17. The Giants have become accustomed to big losses considering they’ve been outscored 69-21 in the last 2 games. The offense has hit rock bottom with Drew Lock under center and the once-respectable secondary has been getting shredded in recent weeks.
The Colts are 7-8 and on the bubble of making it past Week 18. Indy needs to win out and then have a few other teams slip up and lose. That creates motivation for the Colts to win in Week 17 – something the Giants don’t have. It’s been an up-and-down season for the Colts who have shown signs of true potential but also blatant inexperience on both sides of the ball. With that said, Jonathan Taylor has been the one consistent part of the offense this year. He’s coming off a 218 yard, 3 touchdown game in Week 16 against the Titans. And before that, he ran for 107 yards against a solid Broncos defense. I’m expecting another big loss for the Giants.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 (+108) over Minnesota Vikings
The NFC North has been a gauntlet this season (except for the Bears). The Lions, Packers, and Vikings all have double-digit wins which is an incredibly impressive feat for one division. And although the Vikings (13-2) have a slightly better record, I think the Packers (11-4) have looked like the better team lately. Minnesota barely escaped with the win in Week 16 against the Seahawks as the duo of Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson saved the day. Jefferson hauled in 10 catches for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns including the game-winning score late in the 4th quarter. Minnesota’s second-leading receiver was Jordan Addison who only recorded 35 yards. See where I’m going with this? Green Bay’s secondary is going to focus on Jefferson and force Darnold to look elsewhere. That’s the key to stopping the Vikings.
The Packers offense has officially reached the “elite” tier. Green Bay has scored 34, 30, 31, 30, and 38 points in the last 5 games. And when they faced the Vikings earlier in the season, the Packers scored 29. The reason for the offensive success? Jordan Love has been terrific and Josh Jacobs has been a magnet for the end zone. He’s scored 10 times in the last 6 games and has been extremely productive on the ground during that stretch. Jacobs averaged 5.7 yards per carry in the previous matchup with the Vikings so he should get another heavy workload on Sunday. I’m backing the red-hot offense and taking the Packers by a field goal.
Atlanta Falcons ML (+172) over Washington Commanders
The Commanders have a knack for crazy endings this season. Jayden Daniels and company took down the Eagles 36-33 in a back-and-forth Week 16 matchup. Daniels looked great through the air and on the ground, and the latter became very important since Brian Robinson Jr. couldn’t hold onto the ball. As impressive as this win was, we have to remember it was against Kenny Pickett and not Jalen Hurts. That led to just 3 Eagles receivers recording a catch. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown combined for 14 of the 15 total receptions. Fortunately for Philly, they have Saquon Barkely in the backfield and he was able to run for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries. The Commanders won’t get a break from facing an elite back since Bijan Robinson is next up.
Michael Penix Jr. had a decent performance in his first NFL start. He completed 18 of his 27 passes for 202 yards with an interception, but that pick wasn’t his fault. All the blame can be put onto Kyle Pitts. Regardless, Penix didn’t need to throw all that much. The Giants couldn’t stop Bijan Robinson on the ground and Altanta went up by a lot early on. It was a fairly soft launch for Penix and I think it was the perfect game to get his confidence up. Between Penix and Robinson, the Falcons offense can be really, really good. I’m taking a shot with the underdogs on Sunday Night Football.
