Phil Agius
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Going into NFL Week 16, the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings were separated by just 2 positions in the NFC playoff rankings despite the Rams having won 3 more games.
The 10-4 Rams are still in the hunt for the No. 1 spot despite ranking below the Packers, Cowboys, Buccaneers and Cardinals, but the 7-7 Vikings would have been in a wild-card spot at No. 7 if the season had ended after Week 15.
Both teams’ futures would look a lot brighter if they could add a win from their game at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday (1pm ET, FOX) and while the Rams are slowly getting players back after a Covid-19 outbreak, the Vikings will be without a star player, with running back Dalvin Cook ruled out.
Player props are thin on the ground due to the circumstances, so we’ll keep this same game parlay simple and play a couple of alternate lines on the spread and total. This 2-leg same game parlay pays +740 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 alternate spread (+190)
Over 55.5 points alternate total (+210)
Parlay odds: +740
Let’s take a look at the reasoning behind each leg:
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 alternate spread (+190)
The Los Angeles Rams managed to win their Week 15 game against the Seahawks despite being hit so hard by Covid-19 absentees that the game was moved back 2 days. Cleveland and Washington, the other teams whose outbreaks led to their games being delayed, both lost, so it was a notable effort from Sean McVay’s team, even though they had to come from behind to get their 10th win of the season.
Playing on Tuesday has given them the handicap of a short week to prepare for the Vikings, but their roster is in better shape to follow up with a road win in Minnesota. Tight end Tyler Higbee and safety Jordan Fuller were the only starters still on the Covid-19 reserve list by Friday. The Rams won 20-10 against Seattle, which was the 6th time this season they have won by 10 or more points (plus 2 wins by 9 points and 1 by 7 points). Taking an alternate spread of the Rams -9.5 boosts the odds of that leg to almost 2/1 and doesn’t seem that outlandish.
The Vikings have somehow found themselves in the thick of the NFC wild-card chase despite only creeping up to the .500 mark at 7-7 with last week’s win over the Bears. Minnesota has had a couple of standout wins on their record this year against the Chargers and Packers, but the majority of their season has seen them making things harder for themselves than they needed to. QB Kirk Cousins completed just 12 passes for 87 yards in Chicago and wide receiver Adam Thielen is expected back from injury, but the team lost star running back Dalvin Cook (Covid-19) on Thursday, so Alexander Mattison makes his 4th start of the season. Take the Rams and their improving health and superior coaching to prove much too strong for the Vikings.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
Over 55.5 points (+210)
I’m expecting an entertaining game between a pair of teams blessed with offensive talent, and taking an alternate total line that’s about 6 points higher than the regular line doesn’t seem to big of a change. The Rams have a 7-6-1 O/U record this season, but the unders have tended to come against teams lacking the offense to get involved in a decent back-and-forth battle with them (Seattle twice, Detroit, Jacksonville). While the Vikings are not expected to keep pace with whatever total the Rams can post, they are certainly capable of putting points on the board with Mattison having already proved he is a capable performer and Thielen potentially returning to complement Justin Jefferson’s efforts at wide receiver.
The Vikings have had a couple of unexpectedly low-scoring games (losing 14-7 to Cleveland and 20-16 to Dallas), but they are 8-6 to the over on the season and had surpassed the posted total in 4 straight games before running into Chicago’s shambolic offense last week. A fast indoor field suits both teams and this should be a lively contest. A 37-20 or 34-24 Rams win brings this parlay home and that looks like the kind of ballpark this final score should be in.
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