NFL Week 16 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Trust the Titans over the Texans

Up and down the NFL betting rollercoaster we go. Last week was my worst of the season for the column in terms of profit/loss, going 1-5-1 and dropping 8 units, putting us back into negative territory for the season. However, the 1 win was our best bet and largest wager of the week in terms of risk, which is an encouraging sign for our bankroll management. None of it matters anymore as we boldly dive headfirst into Week 16. 

As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Don’t miss our NFL Week 16 predictions

 

Week 16 market update: Which games have seen noteworthy line movement? 

Eagles at Cowboys: Minshew Mania

Hopefully some of you are holding a Cowboys -1.5 ticket from our “Early Birds” column this week. Since then, we’ve seen a ton of movement towards Dallas with Gardner Minshew installed as the Eagles starting quarterback in place of an injured Jalen Hurts. 

“I think it’s around a 4-point move give or take,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “We basically went from like 1.5-2 up to 6 and now we’re down to 4.5. Philly is definitely live, we’ve taken some sharp money on the Eagles at 5.5 and 5.”

I jumped on the Cowboys bandwagon at 3 very early in the week when the Minshew steam started to move the market, and I will likely try to grab a 5.5 or 6 at some point this weekend if available.

Both of these teams are mirror images of each other in the trenches. Both have an elite pass rush, especially the Cowboys. Both have aggressive ball-hawking secondaries. Dallas is more vulnerable through the air while Philly can be run on.

I expect both offenses to have some success moving it, so I lean to the over, but I haven’t gotten to the window on the total yet. I also don’t feel comfortable recommending a play on the side with the number hovering between 3 and 6. 

Check out our Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys predictions

Lions at Panthers: The roar is restored

Detroit has won 7 straight against the number and look to be poised for a return to the postseason. However, the Lions were an underdog in 5 of those games, and the two they were favored in were by less than a field goal at home. Now Detroit finds itself in the rare position of being a road favorite, with the line touching 3 at some shops before being bought down earlier this week. 

“You have to think the market will catch up to Detroit at some point, just hard to say when,” added Degnon. “Sharp money took the dog +3 but not much else besides that here.”

Somehow Zach Wilson and the Jets offense scored 17 points on this Lions defense last week and had a chance to tie in the closing seconds with a long field goal. Considering how bad Wilson looked on Thursday against the Jaguars, that’s not a ringing endorsement for Detroit’s stop unit. 

I think the value is on Carolina here if you can find a fairly priced 3 still floating in the market, if not then it’s a pass. 

Check out our Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers predictions

Packers at Dolphins: South Beach salvation

Here comes Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense is 3rd in DVOA since Week 10 and they get a tasty matchup this week against a road-weary Dolphins secondary.

Miami’s offense got back on track a bit in Buffalo, a big reason why this total has moved up nearly 4 points since reopening. As for the side, I struggle with laying anything more than a field goal with Miami right now considering the current state of their stop unit. 

“I still lean GB at this number even though we missed the best of it,” added Degnon. “Maybe Rodgers is tricking us, but he seemed more engaged on MNF than usual. 

Even though the game is being played on Sunday during the early window, this is a unique standalone game because of the Christmas Day schedule. and Rodgers always seems to show us his best stuff when the world is watching. As much as I love Mike McDaniel as a head coach, I don’t trust his QB as much as I do the former 2-time MVP.

Check out our Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins predictions

Bengals at Patriots: Burrow bulldozes into Foxboro

Nobody is higher on this Bengals team than me. I bet Cincinnati +1600 to win the Super Bowl a few weeks ago during their game against the Chiefs and I still think they are the best team top to bottom in the AFC. That being said, this is a tough spot for them against an embarrassed and desperate Patriots team that can cause some problems up front with a talented pass rush. 

“Yeah, we took some respected money on NE +3.5 earlier in the week,” added Degnon. “The market has been higher than me on the Pats this year; I’m not a Mac Jones guy.”

Both Casey and I are in agreement the market has also gotten a little stretched with Cincy. They have the best ATS record in the league at 11-3 and are 25-10 against the number if you widen the sample to include last season plus the playoffs. The point spread and rating system was designed to prevent extended runs like this from taking place, and the smart money believes this could be the week the Bengals finally show some regression.

Check out our Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots predictions

Talking Totals: How market perception and weather are affecting the numbers this week

Saints at Browns: How low can you go?

With the market hovering around 32, this will be the lowest closing total in the NFL since 2008, which ironically was also a Browns home game in late December. Cleveland beat Cincinnati 14-0 that day in frigid conditions, with temps hovering in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. Fast forward 14 years, Mother Nature will have her say again in this matchup between 2 teams that have trended under of late. New Orleans has stayed under in 6 of the last 7 while the Browns in 4 straight. 

“Weather looks nasty here with heavy winds expected,” added Degnon. “I don’t hate an over sprinkle, just need a couple big plays, but I’m not interested in either side here, weather too much of an unknown.”

Casey makes a fantastic point about the unpredictability of Mother Nature. Sadly this article is usually conceived 48-72 hours before the games are played, so it’s truly impossible to determine how accurate the forecast will be and quantify how much weather will actually play a factor in the game. 

Weather aside, I do think you can make a case for New Orleans to move the football in this game considering the state of the Browns defense, which is grading out as a bottom-10 unit this season. I also expect Deshaun Watson to continue to show marginal improvement as he works his way back into game shape, something this number might not be fully baking in. 

Check out our New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns predictions

Falcons at Ravens: Another absurdly low total

This total opened at 41 on the lookahead last week and got bet all the way down to 34.5 by Thursday night at the time of publication. Besides the weather, I understand the reasoning behind it. Rookie Desmond Ridder is making his first road start against a Ravens defense that has been excellent at stopping the run, which is all the Falcons do well. Since Week 9, which is when Baltimore acquired Roquan Smith, they have the best EPA/rush of any defense in the NFL.

Overall, this is one of 7 games in the NFL with a total hovering in the 30’s this week, including the 2 mentioned above, plus Texans/Titans, Commanders/Niners, Raiders/Steelers, Broncos/Rams and Bucs/Cardinals. This begs the question, at what point do we have to consider betting the over just based on sheer numbers alone? 

“A couple of these games have weather implications which scare me, but I could see ATL/BAL getting there,” added Degnon. “A lot of backup QB’s are involved in these games too but they all can’t go under. Bucs and Cards also could get there but that total is up to 40.5 now.”

I think of the 7 games mentioned with low totals this week, the 2 I can see sneaking over are taking place in Cleveland and Baltimore, but there’s no way I can lock in any wagers until I have a more precise idea of what the conditions will be on gameday. Check back with your Pickswise weather team this weekend for the latest forecast, or just monitor the NFL tab of my betting spreadsheet for when I lock in any picks. 

Check out our Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens predictions

 

Jared Smith’s NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Titans -3 (-110)

This line moved considerably off 7 after news broke that Ryan Tannehill would likely miss the game, and perhaps the season, with an injured ankle. However, I still see value with the Titans considering Malik Willis was a 1.5-point road favorite against the Texans in a similar spot 8 weeks ago. If you assume 1.5 points for home-field advantage, that would make Tennessee a 3-point favorite on a neutral, assuming nothing else has changed with these teams over that span. 

You can make a case that Houston’s rating has improved over the last 2 months, and their recent close calls against Dallas and Kansas City certainly back up that claim. But I think it’s fair to also give Willis a slight boost as well considering he now has some game experience under his belt to take with him into this week’s opportunity. 

I question what Houston has left in the tank after two gut-punch losses against the Cowboys and Chiefs, and they will not get a reprieve this week against Derrick Henry’s physical style, which has accounted for 4 straight games of at least 200 yards against this Texans defense. Up front, I do not like how banged up the Titans offensive line is, and that’s something that could certainly spoil things for the home team, but I trust Mike Vrabel’s defense to keep a very limited Houston offense in check. 

“Yeah, agree with you here, Titans or pass,” added Degnon. “People are down on Willis, but Henry has absolutely dominated Houston and they are fighting for their playoff lives. We agree on the value of Vrabel’s coaching, and it does feel like the market has bottomed out here.”

There’s no Dameon Pierce or any run game to speak of for Houston, so this one will all fall on the arm and long neck of Davis Mills, who has failed to win a road game in his career against anyone besides the Jaguars. This hungry and desperate Titans defense just held Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams to 17 points last week, so anything north of 2 touchdowns feels like a firm ceiling for Houston’s scoring output this week. 

Check out our Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans predictions

Week 16 portfolio:

Titans -3 -110 (risk 3.3u at Stations)

Packers +4 -110 (risk 2.2u at BetMGM)

NFL 2022 column: 29-27-1, -1.92u (-1.7% ROI)

NFL 2022 best bets: 8-7, +0.13u (+0.4% ROI)