Entering the year with Super Bowl ambitions, the Bills find themselves in danger of missing out on the playoffs entirely if they don’t finish the regular season strongly. The schedule doesn’t look too tacking for Buffalo but they still need to take care of business, starting with the visit of Carolina.
The Panthers are in freefall, losing the last 3 games and 8 of the previous 10 to fall out of the playoff picture at 5-8. Head coach Matt Rhule faces being a Black Monday casualty if he can’t stop Carolina’s season sinking without a trace but not many are giving them a chance of the turnaround starting in Buffalo with the hosts double-digit favorites on the spread.
This is a huge game in the context of the Bills’ season and to add a bit of extra emphasis we’ve put together a same game parlay for the Week 14 matchup that pays at +580.
Over 28.5 Buffalo Bills points (-110)
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown scorer (+145)
Gabriel Davis over 41.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +580
Before you check out the reasoning for each leg of our parlay, don’t forget you can read the full preview for Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills here.
Over 28.5 Buffalo Bills points (-110)
The Bills have been held to less than 30 points in their last 3 home games but feel due a big blowout and that could come today. Buffalo are confident Joe Allen will be fit to play in this game after suffering a foot injury against the Buccaneers and while that will limit his involvement in the running game, his arm looked good enough against Tampa Bay to take this total over.
The Bills have beaten up on some bad teams at times this year, hanging 40 on Washington and Houston, and Carolina are slipping into that category now. The Panthers look a shadow of the team that started 3-0 and their defense has lost its edge, giving up a combined 62 points in their last two games against the Dolphins and Falcons — hardly two offensive juggernauts.
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown scorer (+145)
Dawson Knox caught his 8th touchdown of the season in the loss to the Buccaneers and continues to play a vital role in this offense. The tight end has been targeted at least 6 times in 3 of the last 4 weeks, catching 7 of his 9 targets at Raymond James Stadium. Knox is also a regular redzone target for Allen, receiving 2 targets in each of his last 4 games while only Steffon Diggs has more red-zone targets over the whole year.
The Panthers had issues covering Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts in Week 13, giving up 5 catches for 61 yards. They haven’t given up a TD to a tight end since the loss to the Patriots when Hunter Henry got in the end zone but Knox’s volume of work is higher enough to believe he can end that streak.
Gabriel Davis over 41.5 receiving yards (-114)
Speaking of players with a high volume of targets; Gabriel Davis should expect an increased workload with Emmanuel Sanders out of this game due to a knee injury. Sanders only managed 25 snaps against the Bucs before being taken out of the game and Davis stepped up, finishing with 43 yards and a touchdown on five catches. Davis ran a pass route on 80.6% of his snaps, a season-high mark, and will hope to see a similar number today.
The Panthers have some good options in the secondary but if they are tied up with Diggs and Cole Beasley then Davis looks a viable threat. He’s seen a steady uptick in work since week 10 and that should carry over with Sanders gone.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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