NFL Week 15 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Will offenses freeze in Chicago?

Last week was our 3rd profitable column over the last 4, going 3-1 for +4.80 units and putting us firmly in positive territory for the season. Yay. But none of it matters now as we take 1 step closer to the edge with just 4 weeks left in the regular season.

As always, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Don’t miss our NFL Week 15 predictions

Week 15 market update: Which games have seen noteworthy line movement?

Dolphins at Bills: Life on the road

What a long, strange trip for Miami. Back-to-back games in California kept the team on the west coast for 2 weeks. Then the Dolphins went back across the country for a short week of prep before traveling to the snowy abyss that is western New York for a key Saturday tilt against the first-place Bills.

This line opened 7.5, but the hooks have evaporated as the smart money still isn’t fully sold on Buffalo.

“Yeah, we took some sharp money here on Miami +7 (EV),” said Degnon, Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor.

This difficult stretch for the Dolphins is only amplified by the sharp decline in efficiency from Tua Tagovailoa. It took 13 games, but teams have adjusted to Mike McDaniel’s scheme and are taking away deep middle, forcing Tua to be accurate outside the hash marks. The weather will likely be a factor here, especially with the closing number, and could impact both teams in the passing game.

So the handicap says Buffalo, the market says Miami, but Mother Nature could wreck all of it. Sounds like a pass to me.

Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills predictions

Lions at Jets: Ganging up on Goff

Both teams are fighting for their postseason lives which makes for an intriguing handicap between inter-conference foes that only face off once every 4 years. The Lions have been on a tear of late, covering 6 straight and winning 5 in a row SU thanks to an explosive offense and resurgent defense, both of which could be due for a cold dose of reality Sunday in the swamps of New Jersey.

“Some sharp money came in on the Jets at a PK,” Degnon noted. “I could also definitely see some regression on the defensive side of the ball especially if the Jets can get the run game going early.”

Lions OC Ben Johnson deserves a ton of credit for transforming this offense and turning Jared Goff into a competent quarterback, but this will be a major step up in class. Of the 6 defenses Detroit has faced during this recent stretch, 5 of them are outside of the top 22 in DVOA and the 1 top-5 unit they faced resulted in the Lions’ only outright loss. That game was also at home, indoors. For context, the best defense Detroit has faced outdoors this season was New England in a game the Lions lost 29-0.

Friday Update: In an unexpected twist of fate, Mike White was not cleared for contact by Jets doctors, so it’ll be back to Zach Wilson at QB this week. My initial reaction to that was negative for the Jets, and the line flipped accordingly back to Detroit as a slight favorite. But, I can also see a scenario where Wilson takes advantage of this opportunity and plays well in a redemption spot against a bad Lions defense. I’m still sticking with my Jets bet, and might add a unit on the over this weekend if the number drops down beneath that key total of 44. 

Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs New York Jets predictions

Steelers at Panthers: Winning for Wilks

In my mind I’ve gone to Carolina. Interim HC Steve Wilks has led the Panthers back from the depths of despair to controlling their own destiny for the NFC South. It’s a remarkable turnaround considering the in-season turmoil they endured, including the firing of Matt Rhule, the trading of Christian McCaffrey and the release of Baker Mayfield.

“Carolina is playing well right now and it feels like (Sam) Darnold can manage the offense behind this sort of revamped O-line,” Degnon explained.

The market has been hot and heavy on the Panthers since Pittsburgh flashed as a 3-point favorite on the lookahead last week. At the time of publication, Carolina was laying a soft 3, with 2.5 still available at some shops. That’s a noteworthy difference bettors should be shopping.

“2.5 to 3 is always somewhat significant even though it feels less so than years past,” said Degnon.

It looks like Kenny Pickett will return from concussion protocol and get the start, but Pat Freirmuth and Najee Harris are both banged up. During this recent 4-0 ATS streak, Carolina’s stop unit is 3rd in EPA/play, allowing just 15.5 points per game.

The Steelers don’t have a vintage steel-curtain defense this season, grading out middle of the pack in most metrics. Star pass rusher TJ Watt has seen a massive decrease in production from 22.5 sacks last year to just 2.5 so far in this injury-riddled campaign. Carolina’s 3-headed ground attack of Chuba Hubbard, D’Onta Foreman and Raheem Blackshear have gone for 5.0 yards per carry in the last 2 games and I expect that to continue in this matchup.

Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Carolina Panthers predictions

Titans at Chargers: Buying the bottom

This week’s “Early Birds” column paved the way for a great buy-low spot on the Titans, who have been floundering the past few weeks but seem to play their best under Mike Vrabel when their backs are against the wall. Vrabel is 21-8 ATS in his career as an underdog of 3 points or more, and his offense (Derrick Henry) has a very favorable matchup this week against a banged-up Chargers defense ranked 29th in EPA/rush this season.

“I like what you’re selling here,” Degnon agreed. I love Vrabel as a ‘dog, and like you said the Chargers have shown to be suspect against the run at certain times this year. There is not much home field for LAC; I can see the Titans keeping it close. Not much action here but more public money on the Chargers so far.”

I’m curious to see how the Titans’ defense matches up against this Chargers offense. The return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams present a challenging matchup for a relatively soft Tennessee secondary. But there are some schematic curveballs Vrabel and DC Shane Bowen can throw into the mix which might keep Justin Herbert off balance.

Herbert has one of the lowest efficiency ratings of any starting QB against the blitz this season. Well, Tennessee blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, so on the surface this seems to favor the Chargers. However, I can see Vrabel and Bowen breaking tendencies here and bringing some heat on Herbert to try and mix things up. Even if the Titans don’t blitz much in this game, I still trust them as ‘dogs a lot more than I do the Chargers as favorites — plus I’m getting the full 3.

Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions

Talking Totals: How market perception is affecting the numbers this week

Ravens at Browns: Mistake on the Lake

This number is a little light if you take into account some manual adjustments that I’m making for both offenses. First for Baltimore, Tyler Huntley looks like a go — which keeps things status quo for JK Dobbins, who looked explosive in his return last week and should get more than 15 touches in this game.

The second adjustment I’m making is on Deshaun Watson, who looked marginally better in the encore performance than he did in his debut against Houston. Now he’s back at home in a friendly environment, facing a Baltimore defense that got pushed around a little bit by the Steelers last week but was bailed out by 3 picks from Mitchell Trubisky — which prevented the game from going over.

“Only makes sense that Watson will get more comfortable the more game action he sees,” Degnon assured. “Respected money came in on over 37.5 so there is some agreement with you. I like Huntley as a backup especially with the more reps he gets.”

Be sure to check out our full Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns predictions

Colts at Vikings: Inches away with Indy

I can see this game playing out a lot like Eagles vs Colts a few weeks ago. Indy knew it didn’t have a chance to go blow for blow with Philly’s offense, so it slowed the game down and tried to take the air out. The Colts even had an 8-play drive that spanned just 23 yards and took 4 minutes off the clock resulting in a missed field goal.

“Yeah, I don’t think the passing game of Indy is scaring anybody right now,” Degnon said. “48.5 does feel a pinch high and if Minny gets the lead I could see them trying to establish some Dalvin Cook and not let Kirk make mistakes.”

All I’ve heard the past month — from myself included — has been how the Vikings defense can’t stop a nosebleed. I’m sure they’ve heard it too, but this matchup favors them a bit as Indy wants to establish the run, playing right into Minnesota’s strength. The Vikes are top 10 in EPA/rush and top 15 in rush DVOA this season.

Stephen Gilmore on Justin Jefferson makes for an enticing matchup and I think Gilmore will be up for it. With all of the shootouts Minnesota has maneuvered the past few weeks, I would not be shocked if this one is a slow plodder.

Be sure to check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings predictions

Falcons at Saints: Grinding it out with Ridder

Marcus Mariota is on the shelf for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, so in steps 3rd-round rookie Desmond Ridder taking his first NFL snaps in a hostile Superdome against the Saints. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, Arthur Smith does have the element of surprise. Besides preseason, there is literally no NFL tape on Ridder, as he has not thrown a pass during the regular season. Similar to what we saw with Atlanta’s offense early on with Mariota, I can see them having a short burst of success thanks to good scheming from Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson rounding back into full fitness following the bye week.

The Saints’ offense should have plenty of success against an Atlanta defense that has really struggled, ranked bottom 5 in most major metrics this season. The number also matters here, with 44 being the most popular total in the NFL over the last 2 decades. Nearly 4% of NFL games have landed 44 since 2003, so anything below that key total is a play on the over for me.

Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints predictions

Jared Smith’s NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Eagles vs Bears Under 49 (-110) 

I gave this out on this week’s episode of “Pickswise Playbook”, so if you want the longer handicap in verbal form then please check it out. The cliff notes are pretty simple: Philly’s defense has been rolling, its offense is coming off a high-scoring game that featured a ton of fluky plays on special teams, and the Bears’ offense is battling the flu.

“I could see Philly winning a somewhat boring low-scoring game,” Degnon commented. “Lot of run plays eating the clock once they get a lead. (Justin) Fields gives me a cause for pause because of his big play ability and turning the ball over but it would be under or pass for me.”

Chase Claypool is questionable with a knee injury, while Fields and David Montgomery are both battling a flu bug — each missing some practice time early in the week. I’m sure Fields and Montgomery will both play, but I’m not so sure about Claypool. With Chicago also coming off a bye, I would not be shocked if the offense takes a little while to get warmed up.

Speaking of warm, temps in the Windy City will be well below freezing on Sunday and it will likely be the coldest game in the career of both Fields and Jalen Hurts. There is also a huge matchup looming next Sunday between the Eagles and Cowboys that will likely decide the NFC East — another reason why we might not see the best version of Philly’s offense this week. That’s the final cherry on top of my under handicap.

Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears predictions

NFL Week 15 portfolio:

Eagles/Bears u49 -110 (risk 3.3u at Stations)
Ravens/Browns o37 -110 (risk 2.2u at South Point)
Colts/Vikings u48.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at BetMGM)
Falcons/Saints o43.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at BetMGM)
Titans +3 -115 (risk 2.3u at Stations)
Jets PK -110 (risk 2.2u at South Point)
Panthers -2 -110 (risk 2.2u at South Point)

NFL 2022 best bets: 7-7, -2.87u (-8.8% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 28-22-0, +6.08u (+6.2% ROI)