Kevin Davies
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Welcome to Week 15! It’s a busy week that starts with the Rams and 49ers on Thursday Night Football before moving into an action-packed slate of games on Sunday. I’ve crafted a 3-leg mega parlay for Sunday that features two underdogs on the money line and then one alternate over, so let’s dive right in!
Dolphins ML (+132)
Buccaneers ML (+126)
Bills/Lions alternate over 56.5 (+114)
Parlay odds: +1022
Miami Dolphins ML (+132) over Houston Texans
If the Dolphins want to keep their playoff chances alive, it’s do or die in Week 15. Miami has a 16% chance to make the playoffs heading into this weekend’s matchup with the opportunity for their odds to improve to 32% with a win. However, if they lose, their chances dip to 5%. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has saved Miami’s season as he’s led them to 4 wins in their last 5 games with the only loss coming from the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving (it was cold which is Tagovailoa’s kryptonite). The offense has really started to click with De’Von Achane in the backfield who has also become one of the best receiving backs in football. Plus, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith have all been racking up the receptions in the last few games – especially Smith.
Better late than never for the Texans who finally had their bye in Week 14. Houston (8-5) is firmly in the playoff picture at the moment with a 96% chance of advancing past the regular season. The Texans certainly don’t have as much pressure on their shoulders this weekend and that’s probably for the best considering they didn’t look that great in the weeks leading up to the bye. Their Week 12 result was a loss to Will Levis and the Titans and they followed it up with a 3-point win over Mac Jones and the Jaguars. The Texans are fortunate to have Nico Collins back, but the rest of the offense doesn’t seem all that fluid right now. I’m taking a shot with the hungrier team and backing the Fins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+126) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offense has hit a bit of a snag recently. Justin Herbert and company have finished with 23, 17, and 17 points in their last 3 matchups against the Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs. The most worrisome part of that stretch is Herbert since he’s thrown just 1 touchdown pass. And to make matters worse, Herbert suffered an ankle injury in Week 14 and came out of the game for a brief stint. He did end up coming back, but he seemed to be favoring it for the rest of the game. The injury is serious enough for him to miss multiple days of practice this week and his status for this game is up in the air. I’m not expecting Herbert to want to miss this critical game, but even if he plays, I don’t think he’s going to be 100%. If not, it’s Taylor Heinicke time.
Don’t look now but the Bucs have won 3 straight games and own a 72% chance of making the playoffs. A win in Week 15 would boost those odds to 87%. Admittedly, I didn’t think the Buccaneers were going to survive after losing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for several weeks. Yet, Baker Mayfield utilized Cade Otton until Evans came back and now the standout rookie Bucky Irving has become a major piece of the offense. Tampa Bay has scored 30, 26, and 28 points in their last 3 games as the offense has capitalized on weak defenses. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they also have a below-average defense. It’s going to be up to Mayfield to keep the offense in the game, but I’m willing to take the risk at this good of odds.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Over 56.5 (+114)
I’ve been wrestling with this game since the odds came out. Two of the best teams in football will face off in Detroit this weekend and I can’t make myself choose between which team I think will win. Oddsmakers aren’t too sure either considering the Lions are just 2.5-point favorites, but what they do know is points will be scored. The total is in the mid 50s and I just don’t think that’s high enough. The Bills are coming off a truly ridiculous loss in Week 14 as they scored 42 points and it somehow wasn’t enough. Josh Allen might have closed the MVP debate with his historic performance as he threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing 10 times for 3 touchdowns. That’s back-to-back weeks of etching his name into the history books and he seems to be hitting his grove at the perfect time. And keep this in mind: the Bills have scored at least 30 points in 7 straight games. The last time they finished with less than 30 was on October 14.
Coming in at 1st place in points per game are the Lions. Detroit is averaging over 32 points per game heading into Week 15 and have scored at least 23 points in 10 consecutive games. Their offensive success is rooted from balance considering they have the best duo of running backs in football, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and then several elite weapons for Jared Goff to target like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams. Opposing teams haven’t been able to figure out how to slow down the Detroit high-powered offense. Unfortunately for the Bills, they just took on an elite Rams offense and allowed an absurd 44 points. I don’t anticipate either defense making many stops so I’m taking the over.
