Andrew Ortenberg
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There’s a lot to like about this Week 13 NFL card, and while you’ll of course have your regular compliment of wagers, it’s also a lot of fun to sprinkle a few bucks on a big parlay with a huge payout. While you can get our thoughts on the side and total for every Week 13 NFL game, here we’ll be picking a handful of money line spots that each present value, with a few underdogs mixed in. This week we’ve got a six-teamer for you, with a payout north of 70/1.
Cleveland Browns +200
Indianapolis Colts -188
Los Angeles Rams -152
Minnesota Vikings -500
New England Patriots -116
Washington Football Team +340
Parlay odds: +7391
I think each of these plays has standalone value, and the one heavy favorite is pretty much a lock. Let’s break down each play one by one.
Cleveland Browns to beat Tennessee Titans (+200)
I’m not so sure the Titans are back just because they beat a banged-up Colts team that was missing several crucial defensive starters needed to slow down Derrick Henry. Tennessee is still just 3-3 in their last six games, with one of those losses coming to the Bengals. Their offensive line also won’t have nearly as much success in this game now that Myles Garrett is ready to return for the Browns. The Titans’ defense struggled to stop Minnesota early in the year, and they have a very similar offense to Cleveland’s.
Indianapolis Colts to beat Houston Texans (-188)
The Colts are coming off that aforementioned loss to Tennessee, and they’re getting at least a couple of key guys back for this one. It’s a pivotal division game that they absolutely need to win, and they’re catching the Texans at the exact right time. That’s because two of Houston’s most important players, receiver Will Fuller and cornerback Bradley Roby, both just got suspended this week. Indy is 7-3 in their last ten games, with the only three losses in that span coming to the Browns, Ravens, and Titans, all likely playoff teams. They’re a lot better than most people realize.
Los Angeles Rams to beat Arizona Cardinals (-152)
The Cardinals’ hot start was very clearly fraudulent. They’re just 1-3 in their last four games, with the only win in that span coming on a miraculous and improbable Hail Mary. The Rams lost to the 49ers at the last-second last week, and all of a sudden everyone is ready to bury them. Right before that, they had won back to back games against the Seahawks and Buccaneers while shutting down Russell Wilson and Tom Brady. This Los Angeles defense is legit.
Minnesota Vikings to beat Jacksonville Jaguars (-500)
I don’t see any way the Vikings blow this game. The Jaguars have lost ten games in a row, and they aren’t going to suddenly turn it around here against a surging Vikings team that is peaking at the right time. Kirk Cousins has quietly been on a tear recently, and he’s not going to have any trouble against this swiss-cheese Jags secondary that is missing some key guys. Jacksonville is starting Mike Glennon at quarterback now, which tells you everything you need to know.
New England Patriots to beat Los Angeles Chargers (-116)
The Chargers have talent, but that’s the case every year and they always underachieve. They’ve got nothing left to play for, and it looks like the team has given up on head coach Anthony Lynn. The Pats on the other hand are catching a second wind after their upset win over the Cardinals, and they’re still alive in the playoff hunt. The coaching mismatch here is off the charts, and the last time these teams played Bill Belichick completely overwhelmed Lynn schematically.
Washington Football Team to beat Pittsburgh Steelers (+340)
This is the one that gets us a big odds boost. It’s also a perfect letdown spot for the Steelers, who often play down to their level of competition. Remember, this is a team that very nearly lost to the Garrett Gilbert-led Cowboys. Washington’s defense has quietly been playing really well, and Alex Smith is doing enough to keep the offense moving. After Pittsburgh’s fiasco surrounding their game with the Ravens I don’t see how they’ll be able to get up for this game. Especially not after star pass-rusher Bud Dupree was just lost for the season with a torn ACL. They’ll get caught sleeping here.
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