Opportunities for the Jets and Texans to pick up wins this season have been few and far between (except when facing the Titans) so this Week 12 matchup is a significant one for both franchises. Houston caused a major surprise when winning on the road at Tennessee last time out, ending an eight-game losing streak.
Can they back that effort up against a Jets team that fought hard against the Dolphins but ultimately came up short? New York has Zach Wilson back at quarterback this week, which could be good or bad news depending on your view of the rookie. The offense has performed better without Wilson and the powers-that-be in New York will be desperate for that improvement to stay on track now Wilson is back.
We’ve put together a same game parlay for the rock fight at NRG Stadium, breaking down down each leg with our reasoning below.
Under 44.5 points (-110)
Zach Wilson under 231.5 passing yards (-114)
Rex Burkhead anytime touchdown scorer (+190)
Parlay odds: +1067
Under 44.5 points (-110)
There’s no getting away from it, these two offenses are bad. The Texans rank dead last in total offense (DVOA), failing to put up more than 22 points in a game since Week 1. Tyrod Taylor took a lot of plaudits for his two-touchdown showing against the Titans but that masked an offensive performance that saw Houston manage just 190 yards of total offense.
Even the Jets have managed better than that in recent weeks, averaging 21.3 points per game over the last three weeks. The fact both Mike White and Joe Flacco have got a tune out of this offense is not a good look for Wilson though and the pressure is massively on him to get the ball to the likes of Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore. That won’t be easy against a Texans team that had five turnovers last week as Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill posted a 58.4 QB rating.
It’s very difficult to trust either offense to perform, even with the Jets giving up 32 ppg this season, and with the Texans defense looking like being the best unit on the field, taking the under to land for the fifth time in the last six Houston games appeals.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Jets vs Houston Texans
Zach Wilson under 231.5 passing yards (-114)
It doesn’t feel fair to pile on a rookie quarterback playing on a bad team behind a dreadful offensive line but for parlay’s sake, here we go. Wilson makes his comeback from a knee injury this week but it could be an unhappy return against this improving Texans secondary.
The second overall pick from this year’s draft has the worst QB rating in the league at 63.5 and it’s no wonder having thrown just 4 touchdowns to 9 interceptions since joining the NFL. Wilson has only twice passed for more than 210 yards in a game and might find it hard to better his prop number when facing a Texans secondary that ranks sixth against the pass in DVOA. Wilson has the tools on the field to put up better numbers, as shown by Joe Flacco who had 291 yards against the Dolphins, and Mike White’s 405-yard performance when beating the Bengals but it’s too early to say whether he can do it.
Rex Burkhead to score a touchdown (+190)
Picking out a touchdown scorer when the offenses are this bad isn’t easy but the Jets have been very accommodating to their adversaries this year, particularly opposition running backs. They’ve given up a league-high 21 touchdowns to running backs this season so the Texans backfield could enjoy a productive day.
That leaves you with a coin flip between David Johnson and Rex Burkhead, the two backs in favor with Texans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly right now. Burkhead paced the backfield against the Titans last time out with 18 carries, while Johnson was utilized more in the passing game.
With the odds slightly better on Burkhead to get in the endzone, it looks worth taking the former Patriots. Burkhead had only one less redzone carry than Johnson in Week 11 and has found the endzone more recently.
Check out the rest of our NFL Week 12 same game parlays!
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