NFL Week 11 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Cowboys control Cousins and the Vikings

Sadly, last week was another losing one for the column. Matt Ryan’s surprising return to the starting lineup helped the Colts’ offense do just enough to push their game against the Raiders over the total by a field goal, sinking my under bet. Luckily Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock in the 4th quarter and got the Packers across the finish line, saving me from a winless week.

So I’ve now lost 2 consecutive “best bets” and am squarely in the red for the season — somewhere I never want to be. That being said, I still trust my process; both of those bets beat the closing number and lost by only one score. There is also still plenty of runway left to grind back to profitability this season, so onward we go into Week 11.

As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Don’t miss our NFL Week 11 predictions

Week 11 market update: Which games have seen significant line movement?

Rams vs Saints: Rollercoaster for the Rams

Two key injuries for the Rams on offense have pushed this line all over the map. First the bad: WR Cooper Kupp was placed on IR with a high ankle sprain, which pushed New Orleans out to a 4.5-point favorite early in the week. Then the good: after missing last week’s game with a concussion, it appears Rams QB Matthew Stafford is on track to play, which sent another ripple through the market.

“We got as high as 4.5 on that game before coming down to 3, where we sit right now,” Degnon explained. “There was some sharp money on the Rams +3.5, also.”

I couldn’t be more disenchanted with both of these teams. On one side you have a Rams offense that is a complete mess, especially up front, and on the other you have Andy Dalton and a Saints offense that has been held to just 23 points over the last 2 weeks in ugly losses to the Ravens and Steelers. This is a stone-cold pass for me.

Check out our Rams vs Saints preview

Chiefs vs Chargers: Showdown at SoFi

Unlike the Rams and Saints, this game features 2 of the best young QBs in the league in what has quickly become one of my favorite division rivalries. Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS when squaring off against Patrick Mahomes in his career, which is not a large enough sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions. However, if you widen the sample to Herbert overall as an underdog, his career record against the number is 9-5 — and 7-1 as a dog of more than 3 points.

This line saw considerable movement toward the Chargers early in the week thanks to the positive injury news surrounding WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both have returned to practice and are trending toward playing this week, which is a huge get back for an offense ranked 26th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate since Williams went down with a high ankle sprain in Week 7.

“Both receivers potentially coming back are worth a couple points to the market,” Degnon noted. “We were sitting at 7 before dropping the line. Saw some sharp buy back on the Chargers +5.5 earlier today.”

On the other side the Chiefs receiver group is suffering through some attrition. Mecole Hardman was placed on IR this week and Juju Smith-Schuster is highly questionable after suffering a brutal concussion in last Sunday’s win over the Jaguars. Marquez Valdez-Scantling also missed some practice time this week with an undisclosed illness and could be less than 100%.

A healthy Derwin James also could mean bad news for the Chiefs other chief weapon in the passing game, Travis Kelce. With James in the lineup earlier this season, Kelce was held to just 51 yards receiving on 5 catches and 7 targets — well below his average level of production. Kelce has also failed to reach the endzone in any game against the Chargers when James is on the field.

The urgency factor also cannot be overlooked here. The Chargers have lost 2 of their last 3 and if the playoffs started today they would be on the outside looking in. Kansas City already has a game in hand from its outright victory earlier this season, despite the Chargers covering the number in that contest.

If the Chiefs win again this week, they will have a nearly insurmountable lead in the AFC West and will leave Los Angeles looking up at multiple teams in a difficult wild-card race. This rivalry has treated us to some instant classics over the last 3 seasons, including a thrilling 27-24 Chiefs victory at Arrowhead back in Week 2. I expect another close primetime affair this week.

Check out our Chiefs vs Chargers preview

Talking Totals: How weather and market perception are affecting the numbers this week

Browns vs Bills: Let it snow

My timeline was buzzing early in the week with bettors doing their best meteorologist impression. With the forecast in Buffalo calling for several feet of snow, this total dropped like a brick until Thursday morning — when it was announced the game would be moved to the weatherproof domed confines of Ford Field in Detroit.

“With the game being moved inside, we reopened the total at 48.5,” said Degnon. “All bets are action however based on our house rules.”

Thankfully I didn’t get involved with this game early, and it’s still not one I’m particularly interested in betting at all besides perhaps a teaser look with the Bills. But even if I don’t risk a single dollar on this game, there is a lesson to be learned here. Basing a bet purely on the weather several days before the game takes place is a very slippery slope.

More often than not, either the forecast is wrong or the conditions aren’t as severe as originally anticipated. Hopefully some of you who bet under early in the week will be refunded. As always, be sure to check your sportsbook’s house rules for details on venue changes.

Also one more pro tip for the climate nerds out there who base bets solely on weather: wind almost always matters more than rain or snow. The only exceptions are extreme monsoons or blizzards, which obviously was going to be the case in Buffalo this Sunday and forced the hand of the NFL to move the game.

Here is everything you need to know about Browns vs Bills being moved

Raiders vs Broncos: Going back to the well

One of the most difficult things about gambling is to remove emotion from the equation and not be tilted by an unfortunate result. More importantly, be willing to ignore recency bias and be willing to go back to that same handicap the following game if conditions warrant.

That’s exactly how I feel about my Colts-Raiders under last week. Despite listing the bet, I feel I capped the game properly and was on the right side of the closing number. However, once it was announced Matt Ryan was returning to the starting lineup just hours before the game, after we heard all week Sam Ehlinger was the guy, I knew I was in for a rough afternoon. Ryan went on to post his highest completion percentage and QB rating of the season. His touchdown pass in the 4th quarter was the death blow to my under ticket as the game went over by 3 points.

So what does that mean for a potential under in Raiders-Broncos this week? Well, absolutely nothing. But my point is I think I have a good feel for this Raiders team after making large investments on their games the past 2 weeks, and I won’t be deterred by last week’s losing result considering the circumstances with Ryan’s return. Thankfully, this week both starting QBs are confirmed.

Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense will face another stiff test, trying to solve a Broncos defense ranked 2nd in EPA/play and 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency. They are still without Hunter Renfroe and Darren Waller, who were both placed on IR last week. Meanwhile, Davante Adams has been limited all week in practice with an abdomen injury and is officially listed as questionable. My guess is he will play, but perhaps at less than 100%.

The Broncos’ offense, meanwhile, is in absolute shambles and I’m not even sure the efficiency numbers tell the full story. Russell Wilson’s success rate this season is lower than guys named Wentz and Trubisky. Somehow Denver managed to conduct a 9-play drive spanning just 14 yards against the Titans, which seems to defy the laws of NFL physics; but, no, it actually happened. Go check the box score!

To make things more embarrassing, reports surfaced this week that he has been calling the wrong audibles, using codewords instead from his days with the Seahawks — which obviously is causing even more chaos at the line of scrimmage. They also could be further hampered this week by the absence of WR Jerry Jeudy, who hasn’t practiced yet with an ankle injury.

“I lean under with you, as well,” Degnon confirmed. “The Broncos defense has remained solid even with getting no support from the offense and as you said before I can’t trust the Raiders right now. We opened 42 and haven’t taken a ton of action on the total, but we are down half a point to 41.5.”

This game is also being played outdoors at altitude. While I don’t expect the weather to be a factor at all, the Raiders’ scoring output drops dramatically from 28.3 points per game at home to 18.0 on the road this season. Meanwhile, Denver is averaging an absurdly low 11.3 points per game at home — the lowest mark in the league by a wide margin.

Check out our Raiders vs Broncos preview

Week 11 Best Bet: Cowboys -1.5 (-110) 

Some of you might be thinking the wrong team is favored in this game based on the eye test last week. The Vikings beat arguably the best team in the NFL on the road, while the Cowboys blew a 14-point lead to a lifeless Packers offense.

However, if you look past the final score of both games, Dallas dominated for 3 quarters in Green Bay while Minnesota was down double-digits late and needed multiple Josh Allen turnovers to get back in it. Perception doesn’t always match reality, and considering the lookahead line here was Cowboys -2.5 last week, I don’t believe what took place last Sunday should drastically flip this number. So here we sit with the Vikings installed as home underdogs despite their impressive 8-1 record.

Keep an eye on the injury status of LT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) and WR Justin Jefferson (toe), as both missed practice time in some capacity this week. Darrisaw’s status is concerning since it’s taken longer to be cleared from concussions in the post-Tua Tagovailoa protocol, but he did return to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday.

Darrisaw is currently grading out as the best left tackle in the league and might be the only chance Minnesota has of neutralizing a Cowboys defense ranked 2nd in pressure rate and 3rd in pass-rush win rate. Keep an eye on the injury status of Demarcus Lawrence (foot) and Anthony Barr (hamstring). Lawrence missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, while Barr got in limited sessions both days.

Barr’s status is intriguing since he didn’t play last week against the Packers, forcing DC Dan Quinn to adjust his scheme a bit and move Micah Parsons out of his usual position. This is also a revenge game for Barr, who spent the first 8 seasons of his career with the Vikings and was cast aside this offseason in free agency. If Barr plays and Darrisaw sits, Kirk Cousins will be under extreme duress.

The quarterback matchup is also fascinating. Both Cousins and Dak Prescott are former 4th-round picks who have cashed in big with lucrative contracts despite plenty of shortcomings in the playoffs and under the lights of the primetime spotlight. Prescott threw 2 picks last week, but the replays show CeeDee Lamb was likely to blame — failing to adjust properly to what the defense was showing Dak in coverage. Hopefully those miscommunications get cleaned up this week.

I would also be stunned if Cousins doesn’t cough it up at some point in this game. Cousins is averaging almost 1 interception per game this season and the Cowboys are in the top half of the league in that category defensively. Overall, this is an elite Dallas defense that is 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency; the Vikings are 19th in that category.

Tony Pollard leads the NFL in rush yards over expected and the Minnesota defense is grading out as a bottom-10 unit against the run. Ezekiel Elliott is also on track to return this week and should provide some more stability in the backfield.

Make no mistake about the polish Kevin O’Connell has brought with him to Minneapolis. The Vikes have won 7 straight games all by 1 score. Their offense is also showing significantly more creativity and spark with an offensive minded head coach calling plays. However, when you’re winning by razor thin margins every week it’s fair to expect regression at some point down the stretch.

Check out our Cowboys vs Vikings preview

Week 11 portfolio:

Cowboys -1.5 -110 (risk 3.3u at William Hill)
Chargers +6.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at BetMGM)
Raiders/Broncos u41.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at William Hill)

NFL 2022 best bets: 5-5, -4.45u (-20.7% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 17-16-0, -4.50u (-7.8% ROI)