Kevin Davies
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Welcome to Week 11! It’s crazy to think that the Super Bowl is less than 3 months away. But there’s still plenty of action left in the regular season and it starts with this packed Week 11 slate. Here is my 3-leg mega parlay that pays out at over 16/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Packers alternate spread -9.5 (+176)
Patriots ML (+190)
Falcons ML (+116)
Parlay odds: +1628
Green Bay Packers -9.5 (+176) over Chicago Bears
There are a lot of problems happening within the Bears organization right now. However, they solved one problem by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Chicago had scored 9 total points in the last 2 games and just lost their 3rd straight game, so somebody needed to go. Obviously, you can’t get rid of your future franchise quarterback so Waldron was the one to go. Even with him gone, I’m not so sure there’s going to be an immediate spike in offensive production. Caleb Williams is still struggling with the deep ball and hasn’t been connecting with his top 2 targets, DJ Moore and Keenen Allen. Based on some reports, there are rumors going around that some Bears offensive players want Williams benched for Tyson Bagent. In short, there’s a lot going wrong with the Bears right now and firing Waldron won’t solve everything in one week.
Meanwhile, the Packers had a bye in Week 10 and are rested and ready to go. Green Bay is 4-1 in their last 5 games with their only loss coming from the NFC leading Lions. Plus, the Packers have scored 24 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games. The offense has been clicking with Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and Jayden Reed as the main offensive weapons and I don’t think that’ll stop in Week 11. The Bears just lost by 16 to the Patriots and 20 to the Cardinals in their last 2 games, so back the Packers to give them another double-digit loss.
New England Patriots ML (+190) over Los Angeles Rams
Is it crazy to say that the Patriots have actually been playing well recently? The change to Drake Maye at quarterback has completely turned their season around. Well, not “completely” considering they more than likely will miss the playoffs, but they are much more competitive now! Maye and company just beat the Bears in Chicago last week which was their 2nd win in the last 3 weeks. Their loss during that span came against the Titans in overtime in a game that the Patriots nearly won. What I’m trying to say is that Maye and the Patriots are better than people think and have been undervalued in the last few weeks.
The Rams have Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back together and it’s led them to winning 3 of their last 4 games. Admittedly, they’ve looked solid in the last few weeks and are a much better team than they were in the first month of the season. However, one problem they’ve had this season is performing on the road. The Rams have looked good in the perfect conditions in SoFi Stadium, but they are 1-3 when they’ve had to play elsewhere. Los Angeles has an average losing margin of 9.3 points in those 4 games. I’m taking the value and backing Maye to upset the Rams in New England.
Atlanta Falcons ML (+116) over Denver Broncos
The Broncos nearly became the first team to beat the Chiefs this season. Bo Nix and the Broncos were down 16-14 but had a 35 yard game-winning field goal attempt to end Kansas City’s perfect season hopes. However, the Chiefs managed to block the field goal and maintain their perfect record. Denver will look to avenge that loss against the Falcons on Sunday, but I think Atlanta is getting undervalued in this spot. Their 20-17 loss to the Saints last week was a disappointing one as Kirk Cousins threw for over 300 yards and Bijan Robinson rushed for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. The difference came from special teams as the normally dependable Younghoe Koo missed 3 field goals. If the Falcons had won that game, I don’t think the spread would favor Denver as much as it does right now.
Don’t get me wrong – Bo Nix has had a phenomenal rookie season. The reason I’m leaning towards Atlanta here is the fact that the Falcons offense is much stronger than Denver’s. Atlanta has Robinson in the backfield but also Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts as Cousins’ main targets downfield. That’s led to them scoring at least 26 points in 5 of their last 7 games. I don’t think the Broncos offense can keep up with that pace, so back the Falcons for the upset.
