Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 11 of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night and it wasn’t all that competitive. Now with the Titans win over the Packers out of the way, we get to turn our attention to a Sunday slate that does feature some fascinating matchups with good value to be had.
Here are the components of Sunday’s mega parlay:
Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+165)
Las Vegas Raiders ML (+125)
Parlay odds: +1005
For this parlay we are going with a favorite against the spread and 2 underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-115) over Minnesota Vikings
This feels like an ideal spot to sell high on the Vikings. Minnesota just beat arguably the best team in the league on the road, while the Cowboys blew a big lead to the Packers as road favorites. Therefore, the spot sets up very nicely for a bounce-back effort from Dallas. The Vikings have won 7 straight, all by 1 score, but it’s easy to poke holes in basically every single one of those victories, especially since they’ve trailed by double digits in the 4th quarter in each of their last 2 wins.
So while Minnesota is capitalizing off turnover luck and Dak Prescott is certainly prone to turnover-worthy plays, the hope is he cleans that up this week. On the other side, it would be shocking if Kirk Cousins doesn’t cough it up at some point in this game. Cousins is averaging nearly 1 interception per game this season and Dallas happens to be in the top half of the league in that category defensively. Overall, this is an elite Dallas defense that is 2nd in schedule-adjusted efficiency, while the Vikings are 19th by comparison. The Cowboys are 8-2 in their last 10 games coming off a loss and I expect another strong effort from them.
Check out our Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+165) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers as a home underdog under Mike Tomlin are covering the spread at an outstanding rate from Week 5 onward, posting an ATS record of 19-3-1 ATS record in divisional games. The trends from this season indicate that Pittsburgh is worth backing here, especially considering that divisional underdogs between 3-10 points are crushing it this season, to the tune of an 18-6 ATS record on the year. Add that to a healthy TJ Watt returning last week and a finally healthy Pittsburgh secondary, and you have a Steelers team that is as confident as it will ever be this season. Expect them to play with confidence against a divisional foe.
In comparison, Ja’Marr Chase won’t suit up this week, which means the Cincinnati passing game will be much less explosive downfield. Joe Burrow and company should score at some point, but the offensive line hasn’t been giving their young quarterback much time to throw this season. That doesn’t bode well against a Steelers defensive line that is coming off one of its better games of the year and should delight at the chance to take down an AFC North rival that they’ve owned over the years.
Check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions
Las Vegas Raiders ML (+125) over Denver Broncos
Well, someone has to win this game. Despite an easy schedule and a defense that’s been excellent, the Broncos have managed to win only 1 of their past 6 games. Those 5 losses came to the Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Jets and Titans. Not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. Denver’s lone win in that span came by just a few points against a struggling Jaguars team in a strange London game. At the end of the day, Derek Carr is a lot more trustworthy than Russell Wilson right now, and Josh Jacobs is in the midst of the best season of his career. On the other side, Denver’s ground game has completely collapsed since Javonte Williams went down.
Check out all of our complete NFL predictions for Week 11!
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