You won’t like Tom Brady when he’s angry. That’s the warning to Washington as they get set to host a Buccaneers team that’s had plenty of time to contemplate their tough loss to the Saints before their bye week.
That defeat dropped Tampa Bay to 6-2 on the year but hasn’t adversely affected how they are viewed by sportsbooks with the Bucs still the favorites to win back-to-back Super Bowls. Tampa Bay’s road to the Lombardi Trophy last season also went through Washington where a Taylor Heinicke-led Football Team gave the Buccaneers a fair run for their money.
Life has gone downhill for Heinicke and Washington since that wild-card matchup with the Football Team 2-6 on the year after a defeat to the Broncos before the bye. Heinicke can’t get much going on an offense lacking depth, while the defense is a shadow of its former self.
This looks like the perfect bounce-back spot for Tampa Bay and our same game parlay for the Week 10 encounter reflects that. Before you check out the parlay and our reasoning for each leg, be sure to check out our full preview for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team.
Buccaneers -7.5 alternate spread (-130)
Antonio Gibson under 42.5 rushing yards (-110)
Chris Godwin first touchdown scorer (+550)
Parlay odds: +1307
Buccaneers -7.5 alternate spread (-125)
Tom Brady doesn’t lose very often, he’s 270-82 in his career, but when he does lose, he responds in the right way. In the 65 games after a defeat, Brady is 51-14 and will be fully focused on chalking up another win after a couple of costly errors in the loss to the Saints.
Brady should carve up a Washington defense giving up an average of 28.4 points and 389.4 passing yards per game this year. Last year’s strength of this Washington team is now a massive weakness with Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric ranking Washington’s defense 30th.
The offense is only slightly better, ranking 22nd in DVOA, but has struggled badly during Washington’s ongoing 4-game losing run, averaging less than 14 points per game. Tampa Bay’s defense have also made it clear this is something of a revenge game having felt they were embarrassed by Heinicke in last season’s playoff clash so look for them to be pumped up.
This is set up to be a perfect storm for Washington, who face a long afternoon at the hands of a Bucs side that are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss.
Antonio Gibson under 42.5 rushing yards (-110)
Antonio Gibson went into Washington’s bye week very banged up, while it has emerged he played through a hairline fracture to his shin earlier in the season. While Gibson is in better health now, his lack of production against the Broncos is a cause for concern.
Gibson registered 34 yards on 8 carries, his second-lowest rushing total of the season. He was outsnapped by JD McKissic in that game and while the bye week should mean he returns a little healthier, it could pay to take a cautious approach to his involvement. The Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking fourth in DVOA and allowing just 78 yards per game on average, meaning it could be tough sledding for Gibson.
Chris Godwin first touchdown scorer (+550)
The Bucs will be without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, narrowing the large pool of receivers at the Bucs disposal. Unsurprisingly, even with Brady not being short of options, Chris Godwin leads Tampa Bay in receiving yards, taking his tally to 660 against the Saints. Godwin returned to practice on Friday after a foot injury and is rated questionable, but it sounds like he will be good to start.
Godwin had a season-best 140 yards in New Orleans and has been really getting into his stride with back-to-back 100+ yard games. The Washington secondary has been a complete mess this year and is giving up on average 195.6 yards per game to wide receivers, the third-highest average in the league.
Godwin had 79 yards against Washington in last year’s wild-card game when the Football Team’s defense were a lot better, and he looks worth a shot to score the first TD of the game at +550.
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