NFL Week 10 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Colts calamity should keep scoring low in Las Vegas

Up and down the NFL rollercoaster we go, where we stop, nobody knows. We’ve officially reached the midway point of the 2022 regular season. It’s been mostly down for me from a profitability standpoint, but guidance looks strong for the second half, and I fully expect to finish the season in positive territory.

Let the Week 10 fun begin. As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays. 

Don’t miss our NFL Week 10 predictions

Week 10 market update: Which games have seen significant line movement?

Bucs vs Seahawks (in Germany): Buying low on the Bucs?

This game was featured prominently in our Early Birds column this week and the market has unfolded as expected thus far. The Bucs -9 opener over the summer dropped all the way to -1 last week on the lookahead, which created some buy-low value on Tampa in my eyes. However, that value was slowly extracted throughout the week until Seattle money stepped in at the key number of 3. 

“We took some sharp money on Tampa -2.5 and Seattle +3,” added Degnon. “Both these teams have been popular among sharp bettors throughout the year. Tampa always seems to get steamed at some point during the week and I think Seattle is just a good football team.” 

The price is absolutely critical if you’re betting this game. The scoring margins in the NFL have never been tighter. There have already been 72 games decided by 7 points or less, the most ever through the first 9 weeks. There’s also been a slight uptick in the number of games landing on the key number of 3 compared to the prior 5 seasons.

 Just like the sharps, at 2.5 I favor the Bucs, but at 3, I would say the Seahawks have a sliver of value. But neither is a particularly strong play in my eyes relative to the rest of the board this week.

Check out our Buccaneers vs Seahawks preview

Cowboys at Packers: Ugly dogs need love too

This game piqued my interest after seeing the market flip almost a full 10 points since opening Packers -4.5 over the summer. 

“I think it definitely has got stretched a little,” added Degnon. “On Sunday we opened -3.5 and quickly got bet up to 4.5. Dallas defense scares me with how bad the Pack have looked on offense but I’m not laying the points on the road.”

There’s really nothing to like about the current situation with Green Bay, except for the basic principles of buy low and sell high. However, this begs the question, are we buying low just for the sake of buying low, or is there some other edge we can find with the Packers? 

Well, I like the fact that both OT David Bakhtiari and G Elgton Jenkins returned to practice on Thursday albeit in a limited fashion. I also liked that Aaron Jones got in a limited session. There are a couple of other key defensive starters still working their way back from various ailments, and WR Romeo Doubs is still nursing an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Dallas enters relatively healthy off the bye, but if there’s been one fly in the ointment for the Cowboys this season, it’s stopping the run. Dallas is 3rd in overall EPA/play on defense, but that drops to 10th in EPA/rush. They’re also 29th in run-stop win rate. If I were to write the game script for Matt Lafluer, it would involve a lot of Jones (if healthy) and AJ Dillon.

The cherry on top of this handicap is Mike McCarthy’s return to Green Bay. The former Packers HC was already getting emotional during his mid-week press conference, and I expect his former team to put forth their best effort of the season in a game they desperately need. I would also not be surprised if the old Aaron Rodgers showed up and turned back the clock with a vintage performance in front of his old boss. 

Check out our Cowboys vs Packers preview

Colts at Raiders: Trying to make sense of the mess in Indy

Over the last 3 weeks, the Colts have fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, benched their highest-paid player QB Matt Ryan, and now most recently fired head coach Frank Reich, replacing him with a former player that has zero coaching experience in Jeff Saturday. 

“It is absolutely a high variance situation with everything going on in Indy,” added Degnon. “Line dropped to 4.5 on Thursday partially because of Waller and Renfrow going on the IR.”

To make things more interesting, Indy will tap passing game specialist Parks Frazier to call plays. Frazier is 30 years old and has never had a coaching role higher than the assistant level in his career. We’ll see what the kid cooks up for an Indy offense dead last in EPA/play since making the QB switch from Ryan to Sam Ehlinger. At least it can’t get any worse, right? 

“It’s Raiders or pass for me here. I cannot get behind Ehlinger and the Colts right now,” added Degnon.”

The market tells me Vegas is probably the right side, but I’m passing here. I just don’t like the vibes right now with this team, and in a season where favorites of 4.5 points or more are just 22-36 ATS (37.6%), it’s hard to fathom the Raiders being one of the teams to buck that trend.

I also think there are other ways to bet this game effectively, more on that in a moment.

Talking Totals: How injuries and market perception are affecting the numbers this week

Cardinals at Rams: Trying to catch a falling knife

Thankfully I was close to my computer earlier this week when news broke of Matthew Stafford being placed in concussion protocol. The moment I saw the notification, I immediately opened my sportsbook app and bet a unit on under 43.5 before it was taken down seconds later, eventually reopening about a point lower. Things move that fast in the NFL betting markets.

Since then we’ve seen even more money flow towards the under in this game as it looks more and more like John Walford starting under center for the Rams.

“I like the under here too, we saw some sharp action on under 41.5 earlier in the week,” added Degnon. “I think the market has already adjusted somewhat to the potential of him not playing. Stafford has been bad but I’m not ready to say Wolford is an upgrade. I think the lack of weapons and poor offensive line play has also factored into Stafford’s poor play.” 

I could likely fill an entire column with the issues both of these offenses are having right now, so instead, I’ll just caution bettors piling on to the under to be careful buying a bad number. The next key total on the list would be 40, which is actually the 4th most landed on total over the last 2 seasons. 

It’s disingenuous for me to give out under 43.5 in a column on Thursday when the number has been long gone for 2 days, so instead, I’ll just advise you to buy at your own risk down to 40. Regardless of number, divisional unders have been hitting at a 70% clip so far this season, and this is one of just 2 taking place on Sunday. 

Lions at Bears: Fields of dreams

Sunday’s other divisional game features a Bears offense starting to find their stride with Justin Fields under center. Fields is grading out like a top 10 QB over the last 3 weeks against decent competition, and he gets to face a Lions defense that played way over their skis against Aaron Rodgers last week, holding the Packers to just 9 points.

But all that being said, we bet numbers not teams around these parts, and after this total jumped 3 points to 48.5 from the lookahead number of 45.5 last week, it’s fair to ask if it’s moved too much. 

“We reopened this game at 48.5 on Sunday and haven’t taken anything significant on either side,” added Degnon. “Both defenses have been bad, and I think the market is starting to buy into the Fields resurgence. I don’t think it will, but if it gets into the low 50’s would have to take a look at the under but not something I’m running to the window to bet.”

If you’re a believer in the trends and like to bet contrarian, then this is an under to keep an eye on this week. However market timing is key, and considering how much money will likely come in on the over, I’m in no rush as we could get a better number this weekend.

Check out our Lions vs Bears preview

Chargers at 49ers: Shootout in San Francisco? 

If I had to pick one game this week with shootout vibes, it would be this. Kyle Shanahan with extra time to prepare for an underachieving Chargers defense that will likely be playing from a negative game script.

“Yeah, I agree with you, especially if San Fran can get the run game going early and jump out to an early lead,” added Degnon. “Chargers playing from behind will force them to throw, and like you said, Chargers defense hasn’t looked great thus far.”

The Chargers defense is 23rd in overall EPA/play and 31st in EPA/rush. The return of Elijah Mitchell could make things even more interesting with Christian McCaffrey.

I for one would love to see more of the “Pony Package” which debuted 2 weeks ago when McCaffrey lined up alongside fellow RB Jeff Wilson, who has since been traded to the Dolphins. That package was successful on 7 of 9 plays in its debut against the Rams. 

The only thing preventing me from pulling the trigger right now is the injury issues at WR for Los Angeles. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams continue to miss practice and are highly questionable this week. Without both guys in the lineup last week, Justin Herbert compiled just a 5.3 YPA against the dismal Falcons defense, and their continued absence would definitely take some starch out of a potential shootout. 

Let’s continue to monitor this injury situation and revisit the game on Sunday’s “Let’s Bet It”.

Week 10 Best Bet: Colts/Raiders under 42.5 (-112) 

Besides all the fun stuff mentioned above about their coaching situation, the Colts are 8-1 to the under this season and 5-0 on the road, which makes sense if you consider how inept they have been on offense. The QB move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger has only made things worse, as Indy is dead last in EPA/play on offense over the last 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, the Raiders offense has been arguably the most disappointing unit in the NFL this season. Derek Carr had just a 12% success rate on dropbacks in the 2nd half against the Jags, and Vegas has been blanked in 6 of the last 8 quarters.

“I like the under here as well,” added Degnon. “I think the Colts will try to establish Taylor to control the time of possession and make the game a little easier for Ehlinger. Also agree that I cannot and do not trust Carr and that offense right now. So, it makes sense to me that they try to get Jacobs going early, especially with Waller and Renfrow not suiting up. 

The Vegas defense is 5th in EPA/rush this season and will likely be loading up the box to stop Taylor. The Colts defense is coming off an outstanding performance against the Patriots last week, allowing just a 29% success rate. DE Kwity Paye returned from injury and provided an immediate spark against the run, while DT DeForest Buckner continued to be a force in the middle. 

I don’t see either offense generating a ton of movement up front in this game, and I expect the Colts defense to be extra motivated in the wake of all the changes happening behind the scenes.

Check out our Colts vs Raiders preview

Week 10 portfolio:

Colts/Raiders u42.5 -112 (risk 3.36u at Sugarhouse)
Packers +4.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at BetMGM)

NFL 2022 best bets: 5-4, -1.09u (-6.0% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 16-15-0, -3.14u (-6.0% ROI)