Andrew Ortenberg
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There’s a lot to like about this Week 10 NFL card, and while you’ll of course have your regular compliment of wagers, it’s also a lot of fun to sprinkle a few bucks on a big parlay with a huge payout. While you can get our thoughts on the side and total for every Week 10 NFL game, here we’ll be picking a handful of money line spots that each present value, with a few underdogs mixed in. This week we’ve got a seven-teamer payout for you, with a payout north of 60/1.
Cleveland Browns -188
New York Giants +150
Washington Football Team +172
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -250
Denver Broncos +176
Pittsburgh Steelers -320
New Orleans Saints -450
Parlay odds: +6357
I think each of these plays has standalone value, and the two heavy favorites are borderline locks in my opinion. Let’s break down each play one by one.
Cleveland Browns to beat Houston Texans (-188)
I think Cleveland has a huge edge in this game. There are heavy winds forecasted for this one, which plays right into the Browns’ hand. They’re hard to stop when their ground game is running, and they get to go against a league-worst Texans run defense that is giving up 5.1 yards per carry this year. Nick Chubb is set to return for this one, and Myles Garrett will make life miserable for Deshaun Watson.
New York Giants to beat Philadelphia Eagles (+150)
The Giants are a lot better than people realize. Their record won’t impress anybody, but they’ve taken a lot of great teams down to the wire, including the Rams and Buccaneers. They had a double digit lead late in the fourth against this same Eagles team they’re now playing, and it took an improbable series of events for them to blow out. Now at home against an incompetent Philly offense, they won’t make the same mistake twice.
Washington Football Team to beat Detroit Lions (+172)
Nobody seemed to notice, but Alex Smith looked a lot more confident out there last week. Now in his first game as the starter with a full week of preparation, he should be even better. The Lions are in a state of disarray right now, and just got smoked by the Vikings last week. Washington has an elite pass-rush, and together with Smith’s brand of football could form a nice combo. Getting this much plus-money is a steal.
Alex Smith's first TD pass since Nov 11 2018
Comeback Player of the YEAR ❤️pic.twitter.com/rxuB07WO4Q
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 8, 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Carolina Panthers (-250)
I always love getting Tom Brady off a loss, and after the humiliation he just suffered on Sunday Night Football, I don’t see any way he doesn’t come out on fire here. Tampa’s defense will be angry too, and we should see an all-out effort here. The Panthers look like they’re going to be without Christian McCaffrey for this one, and although they fight hard enough to keep a lot of games close, they haven’t been able to finish them.
Denver Broncos to beat Las Vegas Raiders (+176)
This is a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot here as the Broncos take on the Raiders. This Las Vegas team isn’t nearly as good as their record suggests, and Derek Carr still crumbles under pressure. Speaking of pressure, the Raiders aren’t able to get any of it themselves, which will help the game slow down for Drew Lock. Vegas also can’t stop the run, so Denver’s offense should be a lot better in this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cincinnati Bengals (-320)
I simply don’t see the Steelers losing this one, even if Ben Roethlisberger’s knees aren’t healthy. The Bengals already have a patchwork offensive line, and now they have to go up against the most imposing defensive front in the league. Joe Burrow will be running for his life all game, and will make at least several rookie mistakes as a result. James Conner should have a field day against this porous Bengals run defense.
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers (-450)
The 49ers are a disaster right now, and the Saints’ defense is getting better each week. San Francisco runs their offense through the ground game, and there’s no way they have success running the ball here with the way this New Orleans defensive line is playing. Michael Thomas has now had a full week to get acclimated, and he’ll torch this 49ers secondary that is still missing Richard Sherman.
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