Grab your popcorn, order those wings and whatever else you need to do on Sunday because football is officially back. The preseason was a fun tease of action, but nothing can compare to Week 1. This season, we have a lot of rookie quarterbacks starting Week 1 with a lot of home underdogs too, but I’ve looked at 3 different games for my Week 1 mega parlay. Make sure to check out all of our NFL Week 1 predictions, but here is my mega parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jaguars alternate spread -6.5 (+134)
Bears alternate spread -2.5 (+104)
Eagles-Patriots alternate under 41.5 (+140)
Parlay odds: +1046
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Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (+134) over Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson seems like an excellent leader for the Colts, but I need to see him perform on the field before I let the off-the-field aspects cloud my judgment. The 1st-round pick has incredible athleticism, which was the reason he shot up the draft boards and was taken to be Indianapolis’ next franchise quarterback. However, I’m still worried about his on-field decisions against an NFL defense. Richardson struggles with accuracy and can get rush throws when he gets pressured, so combine that with the fact that it’s his NFL debut, and I envision nerves getting in the way of good throws. And when he does air it out downfield, he doesn’t have an elite group of receivers to rely on. No disrespect to Michael Pittman Jr. or Alec Pierce, but the Colts’ receiving corps is incredibly thin and a below-average unit as a whole.
I locked in Jaguars -4 after their final game of the preseason, and the line has fluctuated between 4 and 5 points for the last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line was at -5 and -5.5 by the time Sunday morning rolls around too. The Jaguars looked phenomenal in preseason with a perfect 3-0 record while averaging 28 points and 408.67 yards of offense per game. Obviously, that’s preseason, so the results don’t weigh the same as a regular season game, but it was still good to see how smoothly Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne Jr. gelled into the offense. Ridley and Etienne Jr. join an already impressive offensive group made up of Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and I’ve yet to mention their franchise quarterback who made a huge step forward last season, Trevor Lawrence. I’m a huge fan of Jacksonville’s offense this season, so as long as their defense can apply pressure to Richardson throughout the game, I like their chances of coming away with a big win in Week 1.
Prop Holliday is targeting this game in his NFL Week 1 prop best bets
Chicago Bears -2.5 (+104) over Green Bay Packers
I’ll just say it – I’m not the biggest Jordan Love believer. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a decent quarterback, but he’s been put in a very difficult position this season. Aaron Rodgers left Green Bay but stole several of his favorite targets to come play with him in New York, so Love is without Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan. When that happened, the Packers should have signed a few veteran receivers to surround Love. However, the Packers decided not to strengthen their receiving corps and left Love with just Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. And to make matters worse, both Watson and Doubs are dealing with hamstring injuries as their Week 1 matchup draws closer and closer. I’m expecting the Packers to rely on the two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon for a lot of the offense. But unlike last season, teams won’t be able to run right through Chicago’s defense. The Bears added Tremaine Edmunds and Yannick Ngakoue in what should be a much scarier defensive unit this season.
Justin Fields has received a lot of hype this season, and it’s well-deserved. The former Ohio State star was excellent in the second half of last season – even though Chicago’s record didn’t reflect it. Fields was smarter about using his legs and was much more efficient in the red zone, so his development was good enough for the Bears to trade away the opportunity to get Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud with the #1 pick and get D.J. Moore from the Panthers. It was obvious that Chicago’s biggest weakness on offense was below-average receivers that weren’t helping Fields, so the Bears made it a priority to get their QB a WR1. Moore will join Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, and although it doesn’t sound like the strongest trio of receivers, I’m optimistic about what Fields can do with them. I like the Bears to cover a spread up to a field goal.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Under 41.5 (+140)
The reigning NFC Champions travel to Foxborough, Massachusetts, to begin their revenge tour. The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites, and after several weeks of minor adjustments, Philadelphia now sits as 4-point favorites on Thursday. As a Patriots fan and a Mac-Jones-disbeliever, I don’t know what to make of this spread. However, I do think the game total is several points too high. The total opened at 46 points and has been bet down to 45 already, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop close to 44 by Sunday afternoon. And it’s because although Philadelphia’s and New England’s offenses are on completely different levels, their defenses are very similar. Both units are expected to be in the top 10 in the NFL this season since both teams strengthened their defensive line in the offseason. I would still give the edge to the Eagles, who drafted Jalen Carter to join Fletcher Cox and Jordan Davis to make up one of the scariest lines in the NFL.
In New England’s 8 home games last season, the average total score was 37.37 points. That’s a touchdown below the total for this game, and still over a field goal lower than the alternate spread I’m taking. Part of that is New England’s above-average defense, which involves Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Jonathan Jones and more, and they strengthened their defense by drafting Christian Gonzalez and Keion White. But another part of their low-scoring home games was the New England weather, and while it may not be snowing on Sunday, the forecast calls for thunderstorms. As we all know, rain can immediately lower the total of a game since teams will give up on passing the ball and just stick to running it. Between two elite defenses with rain in the forecast during the game, I’m backing the alternate under in New England.
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