Andrew Wilsher
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Optimism for Thursday Night Football is low right now. Last week, the Colts and Broncos contested a woeful game in which neither team was able to find the end zone. Now we have another two lackluster offenses going head to head as the 1-4 Commanders meet the 2-3 Bears at Soldier Field. Can these teams buck the trend and put on an explosive game? It’s still a primetime matchup after all, and one way to add some excitement to this Week 6 clash is by betting a Same Game Parlay. Let’s dive in.
Be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 6 matchup
Washington Commanders +1 (-112)
Under 46.5 alternate total (-390)
Darnell Mooney anytime touchdown scorer (+320)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1488
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can add potentially contradictory legs in order to get a bigger payout. That’s the plan here, as taking the Commanders on the spread and the alternate under along with Darnell Mooney to find the end zone appear to conflict, when in actuality I believe all of them have a fair shot at hitting. Let’s break down each leg.
Washington Commanders +1 over Chicago Bears (-112)
The Commanders have got off to a really rocky start and QB Carson Wentz is struggling to prove the doubters wrong. However, they are still the more talented team on paper and with the weapons they have on offense, they should be able to get the better of Chicago. Washington actually has the 6th-most passing yards in the NFL this season and has posted the 5th-most passing touchdowns. Admittedly, a lot of that has come in garbage time, but this team is still capable of making plays. Wentz has flourished with the deep pass, as we saw last week with Dyami Brown against the Titans, and that at least makes the Commanders a constant threat to the Bears’ defense.
As for Chicago, their offense has been completely anemic. They are averaging a pitiful 17.6 pass attempts per game and are in serious danger of squandering any potential Justin Fields had when coming out of college. The Bears’ run game has been solid but they now come against a Washington defense that ranks 5th-best in that category. The Commanders held Derrick Henry to just 3.6 yards per carry last week and should have further success against Chicago.
All things considered, the Commanders should have the edge in this one but it is worth taking them with the extra point on the spread as opposed to the money line — there have already been 6 games decided by a single point in the NFL this season.
Be sure to check out our full Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears predictions
Under 46.5 alternate total (-390)
A lot of what I highlighted in the spread pick also applies to why we’re going under on the game total. The official line is set at 37.5 which feels way too dangerous, so it’s worth taking some extra points as insurance since it still plays in our favor for the final play (which I will come onto shortly). There have already been 3 Bears games this season in which fewer than 40 points were scored, and Washington’s struggles in putting points on the board could add another to the list. The Commanders have posted 35 total points across their last 3 games with 5 of their last 7 games going under. Expect this one to follow suit, but we’ll hopefully see a better game than we had last week.
Darnell Mooney anytime touchdown scorer (+320)
This is the play that really jacks up our odds to a nice +1488, even with us adding an extra 9 points on the alternate total. The Bears’ offense has been bad, but getting +320 odds on their top receiver to find the end zone is too good to pass up. Mooney has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he has been getting plenty of targets and yards so it feels like a matter of time before it finally happens. Fields has attempted 60 passes in his last 3 games and of those, Mooney was targeted 16 times (26.6%). The quarterback doesn’t throw it often, but when he does he’s looking to Mooney more often than not. And he has put up 23, 94 and 52 receiving yards in those games.
The Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most passing touchdowns this season (11) and the 7th-most passing yards per attempt. The passing game is Washington’s weak spot right now and if Fields continues to look to Mooney, then there’s a good chance he will get an opportunity to find the end zone. At nearly 15/1 odds, I’m happy to roll the dice on that happening.
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