This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football takes us to Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers will start the Week 11 slate, and we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action. Here is our SGP, and also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this season!
Tennessee Titans ML (+142)
Under 41.5 (-110)
Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-150)
Parlay odds: +550
Tennessee Titans ML (+142) over Green Bay Packers
The Titans will go for their 7th win in their last 8 games in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The only game they have dropped in the last several weeks was to the Chiefs, as Patrick Mahomes shredded the Tennessee secondary. The Titans’ offense has flourished with Derrick Henry taking 25+ carries, as the King has run for 100+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games. This week, Henry will face a Green Bay defense that ranks bottom 5 against the run, so we could see another dominant performance from him.
As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has not been himself lately. We did see a glimpse of his classic self when the Packers trailed 28-14 going into the 4th quarter against the Cowboys last Sunday before a lot of fortunate events led to several Green Bay scores. I’m not sold on Rodgers right now, especially after his Week 9 performance against the atrocious Lions defense, so the Titans as underdogs is my pick.
Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers predictions
Under 41.5 points (-110)
This game will feature prime Green Bay conditions. The forecast predicts it to be 25 degrees at kick-off, but it will feel like 10 degrees. There is also a chance for snow, which is an important factor to keep an eye on. These conditions will make two run-heavy teams even more reliant on their running game, which translates to a running clock and a low-scoring game. The Titans and Packers rank 28th and 32nd in pace, which is no surprise since Tennessee’s offense surrounds Derrick Henry, and Green Bay’s offense has seen a major increase in Aaron Jones’ usage in the last few weeks.
Unfortunately for the Packers, the Titans defense ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed and 1st in rushing touchdowns allowed. I expect a heavy amount of 3 and outs from Green Bay at the start of the game and for this Thursday Night contest to be low scoring from kick-off to the final whistle.
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Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-150)
In Week 10, Derrick Henry was held to below 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 3. The Broncos’ defense held him to just 53 yards on 19 attempts, an uncommon performance from the King. However, it’s not too surprising since the Denver defense ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed. The same cannot be said for the Green Bay defense, which ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed.
The last time Henry faced a bottom 5 defense against the run, he scored 2 touchdowns and ran for 219 yards (Texans). He has 9 scores on the season, and given the conditions on Thursday Night in Green Bay, I expect the King to get at least 20 touches in an offense that will revolve around him.
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