Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 2 was another wild weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To start Week 3, we are getting back on the same game parlay train, this one for an AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to check out our full Steelers vs Browns picks on the side and total in addition to all of our NFL Picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-115)
Under 38.5 points (-110)
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
Parlay odds: +925
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this to be a close, low-scoring affair that will feature plenty of defense and a lot of early-down rushing attempts. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-115) over Cleveland Browns
This line simply feels too high in a game between these quarterbacks. It’s not as if Jacoby Brissett has been setting the world on fire with his play through 2 games against the Panthers and Jets. Neither of those defenses are bad, but they certainly don’t hold a candle to Pittsburgh’s pass rush, even without the services of TJ Watt. To make matters worse, Brissett is dealing with a nagging ankle injury, and he should be limited on a short week.
On the other side, Pittsburgh will likely want to keep things close by running the football and winding the clock. Another feather in the cap of leaning to the Steelers is the success of Mike Tomlin as an underdog. In fact, Tomlin is 67% against the spread as an underdog and 16-7 ATS as an underdog coming off a loss. This is a perfect situation for Pittsburgh and I like them to keep things close.
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Under 38.5 points (-110)
Most of my reasoning for why Pittsburgh will keep things close also correlates nicely with this game going under the total. The Steelers went under in Week 2 with ease, and the Browns offense will see a step-up in class this week. As this is a short week for both sides, I’m projecting both offenses to have their hands full against these stout defenses. Therefore, look for both teams to be run-heavy in their approach, leading to an ugly game with lots of punting. This is par for the course with Thursday Night Football.
Since the start of last season, Thursday Night Football games are 13-5 to the under. And when the total is at 40 or below, these games are 15-5 to the under since 2010. As it turns out, when the total is very low, it typically isn’t priced low enough. I’ll back the under for this second parlay leg.
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
Nick Chubb has long been the bell-cow for the Browns’ offense, and that didn’t change in Week 2. Chubb tallied 3 touchdowns in a game where he touched the ball 20 times. The Browns are going to be a run-first offense on Thursday and Chubb should be the main beneficiary of that workload. Through the first two games of this season, the running back certainly has gotten opportunities to score and this week’s game script should be advantageous for the Browns to keep the ball in Chubb’s hands. With Brissett’s ankle injury and Chubb’s reliable presence in the backfield, keeping the ball in his hands in the red zone is likely the Browns’ best option. I’m projecting plenty of touches on Thursday for Chubb, so to get his touchdown scorer prop at this price is surprisingly pretty solid.
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