The annual Thanksgiving Day slate is here, and the late game on this holiday features the New England Patriots against the Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots escaped their Week 11 matchup with a win on a punt returned for a touchdown with just a few seconds remaining, and the Vikings… let’s just say it wasn’t pretty when they played the Cowboys.
It’s time to look at our Same Game Parlay for the conclusion of the Thanksgiving slate, and also be sure to check out our full New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings predictions on the side and total.
Under 42.5 (-110)
Rhamondre Stevenson over 25.5 receiving yards (-114)
Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown (+120)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, I’m going for better odds by choosing two legs that don’t necessarily go with the game totals pick. Justin Jefferson scoring a touchdown and Rhamondre Stevenson going over his receiving prop doesn’t correlate with the under, and that’s why we have such good odds for this parlay. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Under 42.5 (-110)
When the Patriots play, taking the under is almost automatic, especially if the total is in the 40s. I’m confidently betting on the under because this is the largest total for a Patriots game since Week 6 when it was 43.5 against the Browns. Because of their weak offense and strong defense, New England’s last 3 games have finished with scores of 39, 29 and just 13 points. Mac Jones and the Patriots offense have scored 2 touchdowns in those games. They have had a dismal offensive performance and their defense has been the key in so many games.
They have allowed just 6 points in their last 2 games and have solidified themselves as one of the elite defensive groups in the NFL. With each team having only 3 days of rest before this primetime matchup, scoring should be minimal. In the last 25 Thanksgiving games, the under is 17-8, and in the last 7 Thanksgiving night games, the under is 7-0.
Don’t miss our expert’s Patriots vs Vikings best bet!
Rhamondre Stevenson over 25.5 receiving yards (-114)
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged nearly double this line in the last 4 games. In New England’s last 4 games, he has caught 24 passes for an average of 49.25 receiving yards per game. Stevenson started as the backup to Damien Harris, but in the last several weeks, he has become the lead back and a reliable option through the air. I don’t think the market has adjusted to Bill Belichick using Stevenson as more than just a runner. Jones is not the type of quarterback who will take deep shots down the field, preferring safe passes that are 5 to 15 yards away. Stevenson has been his go-to guy near the line of scrimmage in the last few weeks, and that should continue against this below-average Vikings defense.
This is a perfect matchup for Stevenson as the Vikings allowed Dallas’s Tony Pollard to have over 100 yards receiving on Sunday, so although Stevenson may not eclipse the 100-yard mark, he should easily be able to get 26 yards, something he has done in 3 of the last 4 games.
Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown (+120)
Justin Jefferson was limited to just 3 catches for 33 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys. It was quite the difference from Minnesota’s Week 10 win over the Bills when Jefferson hauled in 10 catches for 193 yards. He’s recorded a touchdown in 2 of the last 3 games and will face a Patriots secondary that boasts impressive numbers. However, New England’s defense has not seen a receiver like Jefferson this season. Their last few games have come against the Jets, Colts, Bears and Browns, and none of those teams have overly impressive wide receiving corps. For that reason, I think that Jefferson will fare well against the New England defense. He is Kirk Cousins’ favorite target and he should get several opportunities in the red zone.
Through Week 11, Jefferson has 20 red-zone targets, equivalent to 32.26% of the team’s red-zone targets this season. Cousins will use Jefferson to get downfield and whenever they get into the red zone, so he has exceptional value to score at +120 odds. Unlike last game, Minnesota should find the end zone, and Jefferson is likely the player to do it.
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