Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 3 was another wild weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To start Week 4, we are getting back on the same game parlay train, this one for an AFC battle between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 4 matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)
Tyler Boyd anytime touchdown scorer (+220)
Under 47.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +981
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this to be a great spot for the Bengals to win at home on a short week. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110) over Miami Dolphins
This Thursday Night Football matchup sets up to be a perfect spot for the Bengals. Cincinnati is at home coming off a confidence-building win over the Jets, while the Dolphins just played an extremely difficult game. While Miami did beat the Bills, the game was played in nearly 100-degree temperatures and the Dolphins were clearly exhausted at the end. The Miami defense was on the field for 90 plays against Buffalo, following a week in which they played a ton of snaps against Baltimore. To make matters worse, Tua Tagovailoa has clear injury concerns after suffering a blow to the head on Sunday.
The Dolphins are clearly overrated in this spot following a victory in which they were outgained by nearly 300 yards. Cincinnati is the play and I expect a spirited Bengals effort here.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions
Tyler Boyd anytime touchdown scorer (+220)
It’s no secret that opposing defenses are extremely focused on slowing down Ja’Marr Chase, and for good reason. Chase already has 21 catches on 35 targets this season, to go along with a pair of touchdowns. So it goes without saying that Dolphins top cornerback Xavien Howard will be locked in on Chase throughout the game. What we’re seeing is that teams are willing to let other Bengals receivers succeed if it means slowing down the Joe Burrow to Chase connection. That gives an opportunity for secondary targets like Tyler Boyd to shine in the red zone.
This has already come into play this season, as Boyd has caught 2 touchdown passes over the first 3 weeks. In games where Cincinnati had success throwing the football, Boyd received 7 and 5 targets respectively, and I expect him to be active once again on Thursday.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Dolphins vs Bengals — he’s on a 4-0 streak!
Under 47.5 (-110)
Both of these offenses have shown the propensity to score points this season, but those mainly came in isolated incidents. Miami’s offensive explosion came against a weak Baltimore secondary while needing to come from behind late. The Bengals’ offense was in good form in Week 3, but that performance came against a very weak Jets team. Therefore, it makes sense to take the under on a total that seems a bit inflated. To me, this number doesn’t reflect the potential injury concerns for Tagovailoa, which would cut out a ton of the explosive play potential for Miami.
Even if Tua is healthy and ready to go, I’m not convinced that the Dolphins offense will be clicking coming off that emotional victory and given the short turnaround. Prime time games have been going under all season and that shouldn’t change here.
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