Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL season. This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football is between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. After cashing my Giants vs Commanders Same Game Parlay at +1300 odds on Sunday Night Football, I’m looking for back-to-back SGP wins. Here is my Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Jaguars ML (-105)
Zay Jones to score a touchdown (+320)
Jaguars team total under 21.5 (-190)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1600
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Jacksonville Jaguars ML (-105) over New York Jets
The Jaguars have won 3 of their last 4 games despite being underdogs in all 4 games. Last Sunday, the Jaguars overcame a 30-13 deficit to the Cowboys that was won with a pick-6 in overtime. Before that, they easily took down Derrick Henry and the Titans, as well as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The biggest reason for Jacksonville’s recent surge has been the improved play from Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a seasoned veteran. Lawrence had a rough start to the season which featured 7 interceptions in the first 8 games, but the young quarterback flipped a switch after their loss to the Broncos.
In the last 6 games, Lawrence has a 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has totaled 1,680 yards and a 70.35% completion percentage. As for the Jets, Mike White will remain sidelined for Thursday’s game, so Zach Wilson will get another opportunity. I have very little faith in Wilson while Lawrence is having the best stretch of his career, so I’m siding with the Jaguars.
Check out our Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets predictions
Zay Jones to score a touchdown (+320)
Christian Kirk began the season as the number one option for the Jaguars, but things have changed in Jacksonville. Zay Jones has become Lawrence’s favorite target in the last few weeks, and Sunday’s game against the Cowboys emphasized that. Jones had 8 targets and 6 receptions for 109 yards, but more importantly, 3 touchdowns. That’s even more impressive considering Dallas’ secondary ranks 4th in passing yards allowed per game and have allowed the 3rd fewest touchdowns this season.
As mentioned in the Jaguars leg of this Same Game Parlay, Lawrence turned his season around near the halfway point, and that has also correlated with a higher usage rate from Jones. Jones has 51 targets in the last 5 weeks which is a sharp contrast from 37 targets in the first 5 games of the season. The New York secondary is good, but when Lawrence looks in the end zone, I expect Jones to be one of his first looks.
Jaguars team total under 21.5 (-190)
New York has held opponents to 21 points or less in 9 of the last 11 games. That includes 4 of their last 5 games, and the only team that went over was the Patriots, who scored 22 points. While the Jets have struggled at offense with Wilson at quarterback, their defense has never wavered. They allow the 11th fewest rushing yards per game and the 4th fewest passing yards per game, so although Lawrence has been on fire recently, I don’t see him repeating his 4-touchdown performance. New York allows 18.8 points per game and their secondary should limit Lawrence’s ability to blow this game open. As if that wasn’t enough, rain is expected on Thursday night at MetLife Stadium, which should put a dampen on the scoring. Getting the Jaguars under the key number of 21 is worth the price.
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