Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To start Week 5, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this one for an AFC battle between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 5 matchup.
Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105)
Under 43.5 (+100)
Alec Pierce over 29.5 receiving yards (-155)
Parlay odds: +575
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this to be a great spot for the Broncos to win at home on a short week. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105) over Indianapolis Colts
This Thursday Night Football matchup is one that is setting up nicely for the Broncos. At the moment, very few people are keen on backing Denver, and for good reason. The Broncos are clearly struggling on offense, as there appears to be a disconnect between Russell Wilson and head coach Nathaniel Hackett. To make matters worse, Javonte Williams suffered a season-ending injury on Sunday against the Raiders, further limiting the Denver offense. With this in mind, we now have a great “buy low” spot on a Broncos team that won’t be a popular bet. But what exactly have the Colts done to earn respect on the road?
Indianapolis has looked thoroughly unimpressive through 4 games, which was capped off by a home loss to Tennessee on Sunday. Matt Ryan is struggling mightily and this Colts coaching staff doesn’t have a good track record on short weeks either. In fact, Indianapolis is on an 0-3 straight-up and ATS slide on Thursday Night Football, losing by an average of 15 points. While this one should be fairly close, I like Denver to bounce back in this pivotal contest at home.
Be sure to check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos predictions
Under 43.5 (+100)
Both of these offenses have had trouble scoring points this season, especially against quality defenses. The Broncos have broken 20 points just once this season and that came against a middling Raiders defensive unit. On the other side, the Colts have tallied just 57 points through 4 games this season. Therefore, it makes sense to take the under on a total that is hovering around a key number. To me, this number doesn’t reflect the ineptitude of these offenses, while both defenses have been pretty solid to this point.
The Colts’ running game is the bread and butter of their offense, and I expect that Indianapolis will try to establish Jonathan Taylor on the ground considering the team’s road struggles this season. On the other side, Wilson and the Broncos’ offense have given us little evidence to suggest that their early season shortcomings have been fixed given the short turnaround, and the fact that primetime games have been going under all season, I wouldn’t expect that to change here.
Alec Pierce over 29.5 receiving yards (-155)
As a rule, including results that may contradict each other always increases your value in a same game parlay. However, I don’t think Alec Pierce having a successful game conflicts with a Broncos victory. To this point, Michael Pittman has been attracting the majority of attention from opposing defenses, and for good reason. Pittman has clearly been Ryan’s favorite target to this point, hauling in 20 catches for 224 yards in 3 games played. But seeing as Pittman will likely be hounded by Patrick Surtain on Thursday, there will be opportunities for Pierce to shine as a secondary option.
The rookie wideout has 7 catches for 141 yards over the last 2 games, including a pair of 30+ yard receptions. It appears that the market hasn’t caught up to Pierce’s big play ability, so I’ll gladly target his receiving yard prop in this spot. After all, at this number, all it might take is one deep ball for Pierce to register 30+ receiving yards.
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