This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills in upstate New York. Neither team has been great in the last few weeks since the Bills have lost 2 of their last 3 and the Bucs have been defeated in 3 of their last 4. But the good news is one team gets to add another win to their record on Thursday.
For this primetime matchup I have crafted a Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 8/1 odds at FanDuel.
Stefon Diggs 100+ receiving yards (+136)
James Cook to score a touchdown (+145)
Buccaneers +14.5 (-265)
Same Game Parlay odds: +831
Stefon Diggs 100+ receiving yards (+136)
Don’t get scared away by the plus odds. Stefon Diggs has reached 100 receiving yards in 70% of games this season (or 5 of the 7 games). The only 2 times that Diggs failed to reach the century mark were against the Raiders and Patriots, and both had their own reasons for why not. In Week 2 against the Raiders, the Bills were winning by several touchdowns early on in the game which led to Diggs sitting for almost the entirety of the second half (he still had 66 yards on 7 catches). Last week against the Patriots, Diggs had just 58 yards, but he was also targeted 12 times and had only 6 catches. Plus, Josh Allen wasn’t that great in the first half and Buffalo barely put together a quality drive, which limited Diggs’ involvement. However, it’s also important to note that New England’s secondary is in the top half of the league.
That’s not the case for Tampa Bay, who allows 246.7 passing yards per game – the 6th most in the NFL. And whenever the Bucs face a star receiver, a common theme has emerged. A few weeks ago, the Bucs lost to the Eagles and allowed AJ Brown to have 131 yards on 9 catches. And two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions totaled 124 yards on 12 catches. I’m following the trends and backing Allen’s favorite target to have 100+ receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
Check out our Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills predictions
James Cook to score a touchdown (+145)
James Cook was always the lead back for the Bills, but following Damien Harris’ scary injury, Cook’s role in the offense has grown. Last week against the Patriots, Cook had 13 carries for 56 yards as well as 3 catches for 46 yards and a receiving touchdown. The Georgia alum will likely get about 15 carries to go along with 2-5 targets, so his best chance of scoring is when the Bills get within the 10-yard line. Allen will more than likely be looking for Diggs or Dalton Kincaid through the air in the red zone, but if the Bucs secondary can hold strong then Cook should get a few opportunities on the ground.
Since the Bills are on short rest, I’m hoping that head coach Sean McDermott will want to take it easy on Allen and not want his star QB1 to run too much which will provide more opportunities for Cook. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, Cook has an excellent chance at finding the end zone on Thursday.
We have a pair of Bucs vs Bills anytime TD scorer best bets at +100 and +200 odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14.5 over Buffalo Bills (-265)
This is the part of the Same Game Parlay that boosts the value through the roof. Diggs having a big game through the air and Cook scoring a touchdown correlates well, but adding the Buccaneers to keep this game close technically goes against both other picks. That’s where the value comes in. Instead of taking the +8.5 spread for the Buccaneers, I have decided to take an alternate spread to give myself some cushion. By taking +14.5, I’m covering all of the important numbers in football. The Bills can win by 1-14 points and this leg of the parlay still wins.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m expecting Buffalo to win this game. But the Bills haven’t looked like the dominant team we anticipated. Plus, Baker Mayfield has been a solid quarterback for the Bucs this season. If he can find Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for a few big gains and get a few field goals, the Buccaneers will likely be able to stay well within the 14-point range. As long as Tampa Bay doesn’t get blown out, the final leg of this Same Game Parlay should cash.
Prop Holliday has his Thursday Night Football player props locked in
