Ricky Dimon
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Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season gets underway with a Thursday Night Football battle between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. New York is playing nothing more than the spoiler role, as it has long since been eliminated from playoff contention. Cleveland is 10-5 and looking to wrap up a postseason spot.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Jets vs Browns predictions.
Browns -9.5 alternate spread (+116)
David Njoku Over 51.5 receiving yards (-113)
Breece Hall to record 60+ rushing yards (+200)
Parlay odds: +1423
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Browns tight end David Njoku racking up plenty of receiving yards would obviously work well with a big win by Cleveland. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing New York running back Breece Hall to have at least a decent day on the ground. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the Browns can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Browns -9.5 alternate spread (+116)
This opened at Browns -5.5 before getting pushed out to 7.5, but I feel good about the Browns winning by an even bigger margin than any of those numbers. The Jets squeaked by the Commanders last week and were incredibly fortunate to do so. Granted, this is as high a price as you’ll probably have to pay to back the Browns – but it’s warranted. New York is rolling Trevor Siemien out there and he has to face a Cleveland defense that is amazing in all facets and especially dominant against the pass. It’s hard to see the Jets’ offense doing much of anything on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Browns are down both Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb and despite it all their offense is humming. Joe Flacco has turned back the clock in place of Watson and has his team on the brink of a playoff spot. Look for Cleveland to prevail by double-digits.
David Njoku Over 51.5 receiving yards (-113)
As mentioned above, Flacco is on a roll. He has led Cleveland to 3 consecutive victories, passing for at least 311 yards on every occasion during this stretch while tossing 8 total touchdowns. Amari Cooper went crazy last week against Houston, so I am expecting regression back to something along the lines of average for him on Thursday. Plus he has to go up against Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. I think Njoku can pick up any necessary slack. New York is mediocre at defending tight ends and Njoku has produced 235 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 receptions (31 targets) over the past 3 weeks. Needless to say, his rapport with Flacco is impeccable at the moment. I see Njoku being in line for a big night at the office.
Breece Hall to record 60+ rushing yards (+200)
As mentioned above, Cleveland’s defense is dominant against the pass. It is #1 in the NFL in that department with room to spare, allowing only 160.1 such yards per game on an anemic 5.9 yards per attempt. Combine that with the fact that Siemien will be under center and New York has every reason to run the ball a ton on Sunday. Hall had 95 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries last weekend against Washington – a very encouraging sign moving forward.
