Ricky Dimon
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Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season kicks off with Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. No, that is not a misprint. A primetime NFL game features an absolutely horrendous Patriots team and a Steelers squad that is without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett.
This is just about as bad as it gets when it comes to primetime matchups (or any matchups, really), but we can spice it up with some betting action. Here is my Patriots vs Steelers Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also, be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Steelers predictions.
Patriots +6 (-110)
Under 30.5 (-118)
Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown (+240)
Same Game Parlay odds: +901
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Ezekiel Elliott scoring a touchdown does not exactly work well with Under 30.5. That being said, in what projects to be such a low-scoring affair there is no reason why the other 2 plays can’t cash even if Elliott finds the end zone. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
New England Patriots +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-110)
This is quite simply a nauseating matchup. We are dealing with 2 backup quarterbacks on 2 already stagnant offenses in Bailey Zappe and Mitch Trubisky. Zappe finally got his first full-time start of the season last weekend against the Chargers and his team scored a grand total of zero points. Trubisky replaced Kenny Pickett late in the first half against the Cardinals and engineered just 1 touchdown drive despite facing an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom third of the NFL. It’s never fun to back the Pats these days, but +6 is a massive spread when you consider the lack of points that is expected for this contest. Not all +6 spreads are created equal. Zappe at least brings some relatively new energy to New England’s offense and he will be motivated to secure the starting job moving forward for the remainder of 2023. This game should be ugly enough for the visitors to cover.
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Under 30.5 (-118)
Occasionally, there will be such an absolutely ridiculous total on a game and your instinct is going to be to test it. For example, an NBA game with the Pacers and Hawks was set in the 250s. At the other end of the extreme, college football gave us a Michigan-Iowa game set at 34.5. Not too surprisingly, the former still went over and the latter still stayed under. I’m not willing to test this number, either. It basically doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback for New England, as we have learned. Meanwhile, it’s also hard to see Trubisky enjoying any kind of success. As bad as the Patriots’ offense is, Bill Belichick’s defense remains in the top half of the league in EPA and should be able to make life incredibly difficult for the Steelers’ offense. The Pats have allowed just 10, 10 and 6 points over the past 3 outings.
We have our best Patriots vs Steelers touchdown scorer bets, including one at +400 odds!
Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown (+240)
Honestly, there is a decent chance that this game goes without a touchdown scored by either team. That being said, the value on Elliott to find the endzone at +240 is pretty good. The 28-year-old has actually been quite effective for New England in his first year with his new team. He has 429 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 154 yards on 24 receptions. Elliott should be especially productive this week because RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson is sidelined by a high ankle sprain. The Patriots are facing a Pittsburgh defense that is #22 in the NFL against the run while allowing 4.3 yards per carry. When you also consider the fact that the Pats’ passing offense is hopeless, if they score a TD on Thursday night I expect it to come courtesy of Elliott.
Check out our full TNF betting guide, featuring side-and-total picks, prop bets and more!
