Week 4 begins with an NFC North battle in Wisconsin as the Lions and Packers square off for the first time this season. Both teams are 2-1, but one of the teams has had a much harder road to this point. There are a lot of uncertainies in this game like David Montgomery, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, but that hasn’t stopped me from creating a Same Game Parlay at 16/1 odds for this primetime matchup.
Lions ML (-118)
Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown (+140)
Lions team total under 23.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1650
Detroit Lions ML over Green Bay Packers (-118)
The Lions have quietly been one of the stronger teams in football this season, and if it wasn’t for Seattle’s comeback win in Week 2, Detroit could be 3-0 heading into this matchup. Last week, the Lions beat the Falcons 20-6 in a game that never felt that close since Detroit took the early lead and never gave it back. Jared Goff was fabulous once again, and he’s been a huge part of Detroit’s success early on. And while Jahmyr Gibbs has played a much smaller role than anyone could have anticipated, the Lions are expecting to get David Montgomery back for Thursday night. The former Bear missed Week 3 with a thigh injury and was questionable for Week 4, but he has been trending in the right direction this week.
Let’s be honest, the Packers should be 1-2. After their easy win over the Bears in Week 1, the Packers lost to the Falcons 25-24 in Week 2 and then made an 18-point comeback win against the Saints in Week 3. However, there’s a huge asterisk next to that win. Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury during the game and New Orleans had to switch to Jameis Winston for the remainder of the contest. If Carr didn’t get hurt, the Saints wouldn’t have lost in my opinion. But back to Thursday night – the Packers are dealing with several injuries. Running back Aaron Jones, who missed Weeks 2 and 3, and Christian Watson, who has yet to appear this season, are both questionable for Week 4. The Lions are a much more complete and balanced offense, so although this game is close to a pick’em, I see the Lions as the clear choice.
Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown (+140)
Jared Goff’s favorite receiver has been phenomenal through the first three weeks of the season. Detroit’s #1 option has 21 catches for 275 yards and a score against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Falcons. In Week 4, he takes on a Green Bay secondary that has yet to face an elite wide receiver. Considering the Packers have only faced the Bears, Falcons and Saints, their secondary has yet to be tested. Green Bay has had to deal with some elite runners like Justin Fields and Bijan Robinson, but their secondary has had a relatively easy time. The best wide receiver the Packers have faced so far would probably be Chris Olave last week, and he finished with 8 catches for 104 yards. Considering Goff targets St. Brown constantly each drive, he should have plenty of chances in the red zone.
Detroit Lions team total under 23.5 (-110)
This is the leg that makes the payout so high. Taking the Lions to win and St. Brown to score correlates well for Detroit to win and a high-scoring game, so adding their team total under goes against both. That drives this payout to over 16/1, which becomes hard to pass up. But I didn’t just add this leg to drive up the payout – I added it because it makes sense. The Lions have been held under this number in two of their three games, and the only game they went over was because of poor defenses and a back-and-forth 4th quarter. Also, the Lions won’t have the generous football conditions that their home turf provides.
Instead of an indoor stadium, the setting will be Lambeau Field. Fortunately for both teams, it won’t be a classic Lambeau game with snow and wind, but the temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. I can see the Lions finishing with 21 points, but I also think the Packers can do enough to keep them below 24.
