Andrew Wilsher
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We’ve got a barnburner to kickstart Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season, as Thursday Night Football features a huge AFC North matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. The AFC North is currently the hottest division in football, where the Bengals are currently bottom despite holding a 5-4 record. They’ll be desperate to keep their postseason aspirations alive here with a victory, while the Ravens are looking to hold onto their lead atop the division and bounce back from last week’s defeat to the Browns. Let’s dive into my Bengals vs Ravens Same Game Parlay for this huge TNF matchup, which kicks off at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime.
Gus Edwards over 47.5 rushing yards (-108)
Ja’Marr Chase under 83.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ja’Marr Chase to score a touchdown (+110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +982
One way to get value in Same Game Parlays is to combine contradictory legs. That is part of the plan here, as taking the under on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards along with him to score a touchdown greatly boosts the odds on this SGP. However, given how high his yardage line is, there is no reason why both legs don’t cash. And the addition of Gus Edwards’ rushing prop also gives these odds a nice bump. Let’s break down each of these legs.
Gus Edwards over 47.5 rushing yards (-108)
To get this SGP started, we’re taking the over on Gus Edwards’ rushing yards prop. All things considered, this line feels far too low. Edwards has cleared this line in 7 of his last 9 games and continues to be a huge part of the Ravens’ run game. Further, he’s found the end zone 7 times in his last 4 games, so John Harbaugh will likely want to continue generating offense through his running back. What really gives this play appeal though is the Bengals’ ailing run defense, which has allowed a huge 5 yards per carry this season (2nd-most in the NFL). When these teams met earlier in the season, Edwards had 10 carries for 62 rushing yards and a touchdown. I’m expecting a similar effort in this one.
Read our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Ja’Marr Chase under 83.5 receiving yards (-114)
For the 2nd and 3rd legs of this Same Game Parlay, we’re pivoting to the Bengals offense and, in particular, star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The LSU product is coming off a huge game against the Texans in which he had 5 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown. So why are we taking the under on his receiving yards? For starters, Chase has had 100 receiving yards or more in 4 games this season, but every time he has failed to follow it up with more than 80 yards. In fact, he has only cleared this line 4 times in 9 games this season, and now he is going against a Ravens defense that has allowed just 4.7 passing yards per attempt, by far the best mark in the NFL (the 2nd-best is 5.4). It is worth noting that the Ravens could be missing top defensive back Marlon Humphrey, but clearing this line still seems like a tall order for Chase.
Ja’Marr Chase to score a touchdown (+110)
However, this isn’t to say that Chase won’t be involved in the game at all, and it’s still worth backing him to find the end zone. Chase has scored 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games, and if Tee Higgins is set to miss out then that bumps up Chase’s chances of being the one to put points on the board for the Bengals. Ultimately, the combination of these two plays gives us a great odds boost on our SGP, but with there being plenty of room to play with on his receiving yards line, the contradiction of the two plays is not as high as oddsmakers appear to be making out. Therefore, I’m willing to take a shot one these three legs at nearly 10/1 odds.
Don’t miss our Bengals-Ravens touchdown scorer picks
