Ricky Dimon
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NFL Thursday Night Football matchups were pretty much a disaster last season and the primetime slate has mostly underwhelmed again in 2023. The same old story continues as the NFL Week 5 schedule kicks off with the lowly Chicago Bears paying a visit to the Washington Commanders. Washington is off to a decent enough start with a 2-2 record, but Chicago (0-4) looks like the worst team in the entire NFL right now. Will the Bears’ woes continue, or can they go into the nation’s capital and pull off an upset? Here is my Bears vs Commanders Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also, be sure to check out our full Bears vs Commanders predictions as our experts look to build on their 39-22-3 record on spreads so far this season.
Commanders -6.5 alternate spread (+110)
Sam Howell 2+ passing touchdowns (-108)
Justin Fields to score a touchdown (+165)
Same Game Parlay odds: +960
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Sam Howell throwing a couple of scoring strikes would obviously work well with a big win for Washington. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Justin Fields to find the end zone. But even if he does, there is no reason why the Commanders can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Washington Commanders -6.5 alternate spread over Chicago Bears (+110)
After starting the season 0-3, the Bears faced a Denver Broncos squad that was coming off a ridiculous 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Chicago seemed to be capitalizing on the opportunity when it led 28-7 in the 3rd quarter only to collapse the rest of the way en route to a 31-28 loss. The Bears lost each of their first 3 games by double-digits, including by 31 points to the Kansas City Chiefs and by 18 to a mediocre Green Bay Packers team. I can’t see Chicago getting back on track on the road against Washington. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is off to an encouraging start in his new role, as the Commanders scored 31 points against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. On the other side of the ball, Chase Young, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat will likely wreak havoc in the Bears’ backfield. I think the home team can win this one by at least a touchdown.
Our props expert has their best Bears vs Commanders player prop bets for TNF
Sam Howell to throw 2+ passing touchdowns (-108)
Sam Howell played in only 1 game last year, so this amounts to his rookie season. It is off to a bit of a shaky beginning with 5 interceptions, but 4 of those came in 1 outing against the Buffalo Bills. Other than that, the former North Carolina standout has been solid. He has thrown for at least 290 yards on 2 occasions and he tossed 2 passing touchdowns in Week 2 at Denver. Chicago’s defense ranks 4th-last against the pass in 2023 and has already surrendered 10 TDs through the air. Only the Broncos have allowed more. This is a great opportunity for Howell to really take off this season.
Justin Fields to score a touchdown (+165)
Justin Fields infamously said last month that he just wants to be himself on the football field. That means running the ball. He didn’t do it a whole lot against Denver last week and the end result was another loss. I expect Fields to tuck it and run a fair amount against a Washington team that has given up the 6th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, including 1 touchdown. Fields has scored once on the ground in 2023 after racking up 8 such TDs last season. Well into plus-money odds, the former Ohio State star has good value to find the endzone himself.
