NFL Week 10 begins with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Get our Falcons vs Panthers best touchdown scorer bets — including a longshot at +300
Clevta’s Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers best bet: Panthers +3 (-110)
The Panthers just closed +4 two weeks ago in Atlanta, covered that game, and should have won without the DJ Moore helmet gate, and now the Panthers are +3 at home? That just doesn’t make much sense. Yes, the Panthers looked horrendous in their blowout loss to the Bengals, but that same Bengals team also blew out the Falcons 35-17 three weeks ago. In that game, the Falcons closed as 6.5-point underdogs to the Bengals.
Last week, the Panthers closed as 7-point underdogs to the Bengals. When you examine the Panthers/Falcons matchup two weeks ago and the comparison to both teams’ closing lines in Cincinnati, the market is screaming that they think these teams are really only separated by 1-2 points max. Realistically, this has to be a spread of under 3 for any of this to make sense, so getting the Panthers right on the key number is good value. My underlying numbers make this Atlanta -1. Now it’s just a matter of determining if the Panthers team that got demolished last week is so demoralized that they won’t be motivated this week.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers predictions
The Panthers are still only one game out of the division lead if you can believe that or not. The Panthers defense is much better than what they showed last week, and that was just a matter of running into a buzzsaw. They should get back safety Jeremy Chinn from IR and are likely as healthy as they’ve been in a while on defense. The Falcons are bottom five in run defense and still are missing their top two CBs in AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward. I can see them leaning heavily on D’onte Foreman in the run game and recall that the Falcons did allow Carolina to run for 169 yards on 36 carries in the first matchup. That should keep the Panthers in this game with a chance to win.
For what it’s worth, the Falcons are 1-3 straight up on the road and have trailed by at least 18 points in the 4th quarter in all but one of those four road games. Granted, it was against much better competition than what the Panthers will field on Thursday, but it’s much easier to cover big numbers on the road as an underdog than having to cover a decent margin as a favorite.
Our props expert went 6-0 on primetime games last week! Get tonight’s Falcons vs Panthers best player props
Clevta’s Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers game totals pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
These two teams just met two weeks ago, and that total closed at just 41. Obviously, there were a ton of points in that game, but one TD came on a pick 6, and there were 37 of the 71 total points scored in that flurry of a 4th quarter and OT. Even so, to adjust a total 3.5 points in just two weeks with the same teams feels like a major over-adjustment.
But also, that game was played in a dome with perfect conditions. Now on a short week outdoors with the potential for poor weather, I am taking the plunge with this under. As of Tuesday, weather reports for Thursday during the game in Charlotte looks to have a strong chance of rain and wind gusts in the mid to upper 20s. Not horrible conditions but not something ideal for QBs like Marcus Mariota and PJ Walker. Also, for a dome team like Atlanta going outdoors for only the 2nd time all season, this may be a bit of a shock to the system.
The Falcons are already a run-heavy team (2nd in neutral game run percentage), so it’s difficult to imagine they would go away from that and start throwing all over the yard in potentially rainy conditions. The Panthers are likely to try and go conservative after that pitiful performance last week when Walker couldn’t even throw for 10 yards in the first half. I can see them lean heavily on D’onte Foreman against this Falcons run defense that ranks 30th in success rate on the ground. They allowed Carolina to run wild in the first matchup and likely will ground and pound on Thursday.
Get our Falcons vs Panthers Same Game Parlay (+1001 odds!)
NFL Week 10 Promo Codes
- BetMGM Promo Code: Bet $10 Win $200 if either NFL Team scores a TD
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins
- FanDuel Promo Code: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 on NFL
- Caesars Promo Code: Up To $1,250 Back On Your First Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
- PointsBet Promo Code: Get 4x $200 Second-Chance Bets For The NFL
Find all the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes and Bonuses for NFL Week 10, including sportsbooks live in your state.
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
