NFL Thanksgiving parlay at mega (+600 odds): Lions can keep it close

Happy Thanksgiving, Pickswise Nation! Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday with a trio of games on Thanksgiving Day. Now we get to turn our attention to a smaller slate that does feature some fascinating matchups with good value to be had across the board.

Here are the components of Thursday’s mega parlay:

Detroit Lions +9.5 (-110)

New York Giants +10 (-110)

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings under 42.5 (-110)

Parlay odds: +600

For this parlay, we are going with two underdogs against the spread and one game under the total. Let’s break down each of the legs.

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Detroit Lions +9.5 over Buffalo Bills (-110)

Since that loss to the Jets, Josh Allen just doesn’t look the same and this makes the Bills mere mortals. Over the last 3 games, Allen is 16th in completion percentage over expected and 17th in EPA per drop back out of 29 QBs. Therefore, for as bad as the Lions defense has played, they should be able to get off the field just enough to cover this inflated number.

This Lions offense is finally getting healthy and with DeAndre Swift essentially at 100%, along with the return of WR DJ Chark this past week, the Lions have enough weapons to keep things close. This Buffalo defensive line is built to rush the passer, but not defend the run. So whenever they have to face a consistent running game like the Lions, the Bills struggle to stop it. In fact, since Week 8, Buffalo’s run defense ranks 29th, allowing a whopping 48.6% success rate. After not allowing a single run offense to produce more than 2.9 yards before contact per rush over their first 6 games, the Bills have allowed 3 of the last 4 offenses to produce over 3 yards before contact per rush.

Look at it this way; Detroit was just 3.5-point home underdogs to the Miami Dolphins 3 weeks ago. There is no way anyone would say that the Dolphins are 5.5 points worse than Buffalo right now, which is what this line is implying. Therefore, there is likely a good 1-1.5 point of value here given the nature of this number.

Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions predictions

New York Giants +10 over Dallas Cowboys (-110)

This is the situation where you want to back this Giants team. Dallas is coming off a dominant performance in a win over the Vikings, while the Giants were embarrassed on their home field against the Lions. Backing a team to bounce back after not covering in the previous week, while simultaneously fading a team that covered by a massive margin is a consistent angle that has been profitable for a long time in the NFL. This NFC East matchup shouldn’t be an exception to that trend.

Daniel Jones is 14-5 against the spread as a road underdog in his career, as he’s consistently played better when catching points. New York’s running game has been the engine behind its offense, which will come into play against a Cowboys defense that is surprisingly soft. Dallas is 26th in opponent yards per carry and 24th in rush yards allowed this season. Furthermore, this Giants passing game emphasizes getting the ball out of Jones’ hands quickly, which should neutralize the effectiveness of Micah Parsons and company. In an NFC East matchup with a fairly low total, it’s hard not to take the points.

Be sure to check out our full New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys predictions

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings under 42.5 (-110)

This is the highest total of any game involving the Patriots since Week 6, and we’re backing the under with confidence. The last 3 New England games ended with staggering low scores of 39, 29 and 13 points. This is due to the combination of their poor offense and excellent defense. In those 3 games for New England, Mac Jones and the Pats offense has scored just 2 touchdowns. It’s been an extremely poor showing for them on offense, while it’s been the Patriots’ defense that has kept them in so many games.

These two teams have only 3 days of rest before this primetime matchup, and if trends mean anything, scoring should be hard to come by. In fact, the under is 17-8 in the last 25 Thanksgiving games and a resounding 7-0 in the last 7 Thanksgiving night games. Look for another low-scoring contest here.

Check out all of our complete NFL predictions for Week 12!

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