Andrew Wilsher
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Happy Thanksgiving, Pickswise Nation! To celebrate this great public holiday, we’re thankful for being able to watch 3 great NFL matchups, featuring a trio of divisional matchups. The Lions look to win their first Thanksgiving game in 6 years when they host the Packers, before the Cowboys take on the Commanders and the 49ers search for further daylight between themselves and the Seahawks in the NFC West. To celebrate, we’ve crafted a 3-leg NFL Thanksgiving parlay, with a spread pick in every game. Let’s get into my NFL Thanksgiving parlay, but make sure you also read our NFL picks for every matchup this week, with our experts up +36.6 units this season.
Lions -7.5 (-110)
Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
49ers -7 (-110)
NFL Thanksgiving parlay odds: +596
For this NFL Thanksgiving parlay, I’m going with two favorites on an alternate spread and one underdog, which will hopefully deliver a payout with Bet365 at more than 10/1! Let’s break down each of the legs.
Detroit Lions -7.5 over Green Bay Packers (-110)
The first game on Thanksgiving Thursday features the Green Bay Packers visiting the Detroit Lions in an NFC North matchup. Don’t look now but the Lions are 8-2 this season and have won 7 of their last 8 games, including a 4th-quarter comeback against the Bears on Sunday. The Packers also got a victory on Sunday against the Chargers but have been struggling to find their groove all season long. The Lions have one of the most electrifying offenses in the league with playmakers Amon-Ra St. Brown at wide receiver and electrifying rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Quarterback Jared Goff is one of the main reasons why this Lions offense has been thriving and averaging 27 points per game, which ranks 6th-best in the league. The Packers’ defense is expected to struggle this week at stopping all of the Lions’ weapons and should be exposed.
As for Green Bay’s offense, they are continuing to struggle with quarterback Jordan Love settling in as the Packers’ starting quarterback. They are only averaging 20 points per game and against the Lions offense they could find it difficult to keep up, especially on a short week. I’m expecting Love to be under pressure throughout the game, especially with Aidan Hutchinson breathing down his neck, and I can see the QB make some mistakes as a result. Love has already been intercepted 10 times this season and has been known to make poor decisions at times. All things considered, I’m predicting the Lions to have an easy game on Thanksgiving and can coast their way to victory before enjoying their turkey. I’m taking Detroit to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Don’t miss our Packers vs Lions Same Game Parlay at +912 odds
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 over Washington Commanders (-110)
It’s really hard to pinpoint which version of the Commanders will show up week to week. After nearly beating the incomparable Eagles in Week 8, Washington played well the proceeding 2 Sundays. In Week 9 they beat the Patriots in Foxboro. They lost in Week 10 at Seattle, but they were 5.5-point underdogs and held their own in a hostile environment. The Washington defense played hard in both contests, and it seemed the franchise turned a corner after releasing Montez Sweat and Chase Young. With Sam Howell playing better, it felt like a new era in DC. Clearly the Commanders still have issues. They flailed against what many consider to be the worst team in pro football in Week 11, losing by margin to Tommy DeVito and the Giants. We can go through all the statistics and how they egregiously turned it over 6 times, but really it’s an indictment on head coach Ron Rivera. He has never produced consistency with his team, and now they have the daunting task of a road game at their heated rivals’ home building — a venue where the Cowboys are 12-1 the last 2 seasons.
The Cowboys came out the easy victors at Carolina in a sleepy spot. Never as pristine as they play at home, Dallas proved it could win on the road — and with authority — when they should. The Panthers never had a shot. Dallas outclassed the home team for all four quarters, gaining 124 more yards and 10 more first downs than 1-win Carolina. I think they will likely outclass the Commanders on Thanksgiving, too. Dallas has exclusively faced poor or mediocre teams at home this season; it won by an average margin of 27.5 points per game. The Commanders are the definition of mediocre, so it’s hammer time for a Cowboys team still seeking the #1 seed in the NFC. These spreads are getting massive, but don’t let that scare you.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
San Francisco 49ers -7 over Seattle Seahawks (-110)
After a brief midseason swoon, the 49ers are back. Much of that has to do with their health, as Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams have returned to the lineup. Laying road chalk is never particularly fun in the NFL, but this 49ers team isn’t one to be fading at the moment. The 49ers are No. 1 in DVOA on offense and No. 8 in DVOA on defense. Overall, they rank No. 2, behind just Baltimore. If you’re a believer in DVOA metrics (I am), this could get ugly for the Seahawks. They’re likely to be without stud running back Kenneth Walker III with an oblique injury. Geno Smith will likely play, but it’s anyone’s guess how effective he can still be with the elbow injury.
The Seahawks enter this matchup ranked 18th defensively in DVOA, which is significantly worse than the 49ers’ last two opponents (Jaguars and Buccaneers). The 49ers put up 34 and 27 on those teams, respectively. This would also be a good time to remind you that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy ranks first in the following categories this season: pass rating, completion percentage, touchdowns per attempt, yards per attempt and yards per completion. He’s having a fabulous year. It’s a divisional game on the road and so you certainly have to factor that in, but there’s really nothing about this matchup that intrigues me about the Seahawks, even at home. The 49ers swept them last season and beat them in the playoffs handily, and now they’re in a favorable position to potentially land a top-3 seed in the postseason. They’re playing their best football of the season and my expectation is that continues on Thanksgiving night in primetime.
Don’t miss our 49ers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay at BOOSTED +1025 odds with Unibet
