Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 17 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. This Saturday, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a pivotal AFC South matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, and also be sure to keep an eye on our NFL picks for every game this week!
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-108)
Over 39 (-118)
Evan Engram over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Parlay odds: +563
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-108)
The AFC South has flipped upside down in recent weeks. The Titans were 5-2 after Week 8 and 7-3 after Week 11, while the Jaguars were 2-6 and 3-7 at those same stages. However, Tennessee is now in the midst of a 6-game losing streak and Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 6 of its last 8 games. The Titans are reeling at the moment, as Ryan Tannehill is on injured reserve and Derrick Henry is banged up. Josh Dobbs has already been announced as the Titans’ starter for this week and he’ll have a tough road test in his first career start. Tennessee is 0-4-2 against the spread in its last 6 overall, while the Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC. Look for Jacksonville to keep things rolling and capture the AFC South title in convincing fashion.
Be sure to check out our full Titans vs Jaguars predictions
Over 39 (-118)
The last time these teams faced off, a total of 58 points were scored. I’m not sure we will get to 58 again this time around, but I feel good about getting past 39. Henry is expected to play for the Titans, which should bolster their chances of finding the end zone at least once. And even if Tennessee’s offense struggles, it will probably be the Jaguars who do most of the work on Saturday. Jacksonville has scored more than 30 points in 3 of the past 4 contests and Trevor Lawrence is absolutely rolling at the moment. In the last 8 games, his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-to-2 and the offense has flourished as a result. I’m backing the over with some confidence.
Evan Engram over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Our guy Jared Smith summed it up best in his Week 18 player props article: Evan Engram has a lot to play for. The Jaguars tight end has already had a resurgent season, but he’s got a chance to help himself out this week. Engram bet on himself last offseason, singing a 1-year deal with Jacksonville, and he now needs just 61 more receiving yards for a $200k bonus at the end of the season. What actually adds even more value to this leg of our parlay is the Titans defense, which allows the most targets per game (8.5) and 2nd most yards (65.9) to tight ends this season. Engram and Lawrence have a clear chemistry and I expect him to get plenty of targets on Saturday.
Don’t miss Jared Smith’s best NFL Week 18 player prop bets
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