The nerds have taken over the football betting world and I get it (kind of). They have fancy numbers and weird stats and they say “deep-dive” and “analytics” all the time so they sound super smart. Here’s the thing. We don’t need the nerds for NFL teasers and moneyline parlays. Sure they’re fun to listen to and it’s pretty sweet to drop their deep-dive stats on the casuals, but at the end of the day, we just need a little common sense.
On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ NFL picks this week. It’s just a smart thing to do. Also, bets can be added to the card, so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? There’s always late news for some of these games, so there is always a chance for opportunity to knock.
Week 3 NFL Teaser – 2-team 6-point (-120)
Los Angeles Chargers +12.5
This is the one that makes this NFL teaser so easy. We don’t need some guy with a spreadsheet to tell us that the Chiefs haven’t covered this against the Chargers in at least 3 years. It could be more but I stopped looking at 2018. It could be over 10 years for all we know. The fact is, none of that really matters because we have eyes and functioning brains. We’ve seen a Kansas City defense that couldn’t cover a receiver if you gave them a blanket. The only thing worse than their pass defense is their run defense, which just gave up 5.9 yards a carry to Ty’Son Williams. I’m not buying them as a team that can pull away from Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. (Note: I would have put Jared Cook in that list but he didn’t cover his receiving yardage prop, so he is being ignored for the week).
Be sure to read our full game preview for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers +9.5
I know nobody likes waiting until the 8:20pm ET game to cash a NFL teaser but is it that bad? The answer is no. Especially when you are getting a team +9.5 that will probably win the game outright. That’s just fun. We don’t need advanced math to tell us that the 49ers defense is not good. Sure they just held the Eagles to 11 points but that’s because Jalen Hurts is still not a guy who can challenge a defense with his arm. They also got lucky that the Eagles didn’t score on Quez Watkins’ 90+ yard catch. Philadelphia got exactly 0 points from that. That won’t happen this week. We all saw Jared Goff torch the Niners Week 1 and the Packers have a guy named Aaron Rodgers. I don’t even know if it’s possible for the Packers to NOT cover 9.5 points in this game.
Don’t forget to read our full game preview for Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 NFL parlay (-102)
Buffalo Bills ML
The nerds will tell you that moneyline favorite parlays are basically a glorified NFL teaser. They’re kind of right but at the end of the day, it’s still a parlay. Basically all we have to do is find 3 teams that we know are going to win and then tie them together. It’s almost too easy. In the first game we get to back a team that I think can win the Super Bowl against another team being led by Taylor Heinicke. This isn’t a Disney movie, people. Heinicke isn’t just going to go to Buffalo and beat a Bills team that just embarrassed the Miami Dolphins 35-0. You don’t need advanced statistics to tell you that the Buffalo’s defense just held Miami, who was also being led by a backup quarterback, to only 216 total yards. Give me the Bills all day Sunday.
Be sure to read our full game preview for Washington Football Team vs Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals ML
© Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
A lot of people don’t know this but the Arizona Cardinals are on pace to become the first team in NFL history to win 17 games in the regular season. If you think that’s crazy, think about this. They’re going to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars, who are on pace to be the first team in NFL history to lose 17 games in a regular season. How’s that for advanced statistics? I almost put this in my NFL teaser, but I decided after a few mental simulations to just throw them in the parlay. It’s all deadly but at the end of the day it’s what’s best for all of us. I don’t know if you’ve seen a Jaguars’ game yet but they’re bottom 10 in the NFL in yards given up to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. What’s crazy is they cheat a lot too as they get penalized all the time too. I give the Jaguars a 0% chance of winning this game.
Be sure to read our full game preview for Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens ML
Another team that is on pace to lose 17 games this season is the Detroit Lions. If we’re being honest, I think they can do it. They definitely won’t win this week and they don’t even have a winnable game on their schedule until they play the Atlanta Falcons the day after Christmas. The first overall pick is looking pretty good for the Lions from how I understand it. They did this thing in Week 1 where they made it look like they were in the game but really weren’t. They were down 31-10 at halftime in that one. Then last week they looked like they were going to compete only to quit at halftime. They gave up 4 touchdowns to the same guy (Aaron Jones) and now they get a team that is literally a one-trick pony, so we could see them give up 4 more to another guy. They won’t stop Lamar Jackson with what is arguably the worst defense in the history of the NFL at the moment. This is almost too easy.
Be sure to read our full game preview for Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions
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