Andrew Ortenberg
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Sunday’s divisional round action will get going here as the Detroit Lions host a second home playoff game for the first time in their franchise’s history. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just smoked the Eagles on wild card weekend, and Baker Mayfield is riding higher than he ever has before. Can the Bucs keep their unlikely run going, or will Dan Campbell bring Detroit to an NFC Championship Game? I can’t wait to find out.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this playoff showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL playoff picks on sides and totals. I hit one last week at +1305 for Packers vs Cowboys, now let’s make it two weeks in a row with a big winner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+225)
Cade Otton 4+ receptions (+118)
Rachaad White over 22.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +1128
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+225)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Buccaneers straight up on the money line. Detroit’s win over the Rams was a nice feel-good story, but it didn’t leave me too excited about the Lions. They struggled immensely after their opening script wore off, and barely moved the ball for the final 2.5 quarters. Jared Goff got away with some mistakes, and they actually ended up getting out gained by 1.6 yards per play by Los Angeles.
The Bucs, on the other hand, absolutely dominated the Eagles — beating them 32-9 in a game that was never in doubt. Baker Mayfield is playing the best ball of his pro career, and Tampa Bay quietly has one of the best groups of weapons in the entire league. And the win over the Eagles was far from a fluke. Mayfield finished the regular season with a 28-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio, and he only got better as the season went on.
He clearly isn’t fazed by a big stage, and his TD-to-INT ratio on the road this year is 18-to-3 so I don’t have any worries about his ability to play in a hostile environment. When he played at Lambeau Field a few weeks ago, he finished with a perfect passer rating.
Detroit was never as good as they seemed, and they benefited from a really soft back half of their schedule. Almost all of their wins down the stretch came against teams limping to the finish line, and the last time during the regular season that they beat a team that made the playoffs was October 15.
Cade Otton 4+ receptions (+118)
I think the next 2 legs of this Same Game Parlay correlate nicely with the Bucs ML. Otton was a huge part of the team’s success last week, leading the team with 8 catches for 89 yards. The game-plan was clearly to exploit Philly’s linebackers, and that’s the unit that is most vulnerable for Detroit, as well, so I expect them to go right back to the well here.
He got a whopping 11 targets last week and will be a nice safety blanket for Mayfield if the Lions’ pass rush gets home. Detroit gave up 8 catches for 111 yards to Minnesota’s tight ends in their regular-season finale, and that was even with TJ Hockenson out for the game.
Rachaad White over 22.5 receiving yards (-114)
This White prop also correlates with our theory of the case, that Tampa Bay’s plan will be to attack Detroit’s linebackers while the Lions throw everything they can at slowing down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the outside. White got to at least 23 receiving yards in 11 of his 17 games during the regular season, and he finished at 22 flat in two others, so I like this prop as a standalone bet as well.
The Lions’ pass defense is highly exploitable, and they let Matthew Stafford throw for 367 yards while averaging over 10 yards per attempt last week. Rams running backs had 4 catches for 44 yards in that one.
