NFL Super Bowl 57 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith

We’ve reached the end of the road. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, my best bets column will turn a profit this season, accomplishing a key goal set forth at the end of last year.

As always, I had help. A big thanks to Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon and TwinSpires Director of Retail Trading Zachary Lucas. Both oddsmakers have been instrumental in guiding us through the murky waters of the NFL markets and their weekly insight was invaluable.

The final piece of this is for you, the loyal readers. I know there are a lot of options out there in terms of NFL betting content, but I appreciate you landing here and following along my journey. None of this matters without your support.

But enough song and dance, I know you all are here for Super Bowl Picks and analysis. So for one last time, let’s dive in.

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Super Bowl market update: What key factors are impacting line movement? 

Both the spread and total have been relatively stable since the initial wave of movement we saw last Sunday night after the championship games. Let’s start with the spread, which did move towards the Eagles initially, but never reached the key number.

“We opened PK last Sunday night after the conference championship games and the action flooded in on the Eagles pushing us up to -2.5,” added Degnon. “Since then, we’ve had some buy back on KC bringing us back down to -1.5 with the rest of the market.”

In my Early Birds column last Sunday night, I recommended a bet on Chiefs +2.5 as I expected the market to drift back towards the underdog. Hopefully some of you took advantage and have enjoyed some movement in their direction since. Barring some unforeseen injury news I think the market will stay relatively stable from here. If the Kadarius Toney and Juju Smith-Schuster trend in a positive direction then I can maybe see another half point move towards KC, but 1.5 could very well be the closing number.

“If I had to guess I think Philly will close a favorite just based on the type of action we got once we opened at PK,” added Degnon. “I do think they deserve to be a favorite but nothing more than where the market is at right now. When we were discussing possible openers I liked PHI -1. Obviously, Mahomes is the best player on the field but I favor the Eagles in the trenches.”

As for the total, it’s been mostly over money so far after opening at 49.5, which is no surprise for a game of this magnitude considering the offenses involved. Once it hit 51 that’s where the sharps stepped in on the under, pushing it back down to 50.5 which was the current price at the time of publication. In case you forgot, 51 is the most landed on total in the NFL in the last 2 decades.

“I would be surprised but not shocked if a mix of sharps and public pushed the number that high,” added Degnon. “We took some respected money over 50 and as you can guess the public is all about the over as well.”

According to the efficient market theory, this should be the sharpest line of the season both side and total, so it’s hard to call either a best bet. But for the sake of my game script I like the Chiefs, and if I’m just picking based on who I think will win, I’m going with Kansas City.

Find out the latest Super Bowl odds for Chiefs vs Eagles

Super Bowl props update: Where you should be allocating your portfolio

So if there’s no “best bet” on the side or total, what is the best strategy for betting the Super Bowl? The answer is easy, Super Bowl Prop Bets. This is the one game all season where sportsbooks will overextend their betting menu in order to entice as much action as possible. That means more potential holes in the market for us to exploit if we’re willing to put in the work.

From cross-sport parlays to head-to-head matchups, it’s truly remarkable how creative oddsmakers have gotten. The Westgate has mastered this process over the years with Degnon being a big part of the release last Thursday, which is always a festive occasion at the window.

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Enjoy a pdf version of our 38-page packet here — https://t.co/ONyiSrlSqd pic.twitter.com/Vc8rpoFAnM

— SuperBook Nevada (@SuperBookNV) February 3, 2023

“This was my first year doing that and it was a great learning experience,” added Degnon. “Least favorite I would say is having to move all the secondary markets involved with the different prop bets. For example, if you move Kelce yards there’s 5-6 other props you might not move but have to look since he’s involved in various yardage props as well as the cross sport stuff.

One thing to keep in mind before populating your prop cards, most of them stay under. It might be tempting to bet a ton of overs, but on average about 70% of props that involve counting stats stay under the total, so be sure to have a balanced portfolio.

Be sure to check out our full Super Bowl 57 Chiefs vs Eagles predictions

My favorite Super Bowl prop bet: Chiefs to have the most sacks (+100)

This very much goes against the narrative of which team has the better defensive line, but data paints a different picture. The Chiefs have the 2nd lowest QB sack percentage in the NFL at 3.82% while the Eagles are outside the top 20 at 7.29%. Patrick Mahomes is elite at absorbing pressure and has the lowest pressure-to-sack ratio of any QB in the NFL (10.5%) while Jalen Hurts has the 6th highest (21.5%).

The Eagles offensive line is highly regarded as the best unit in the NFL, and they deserve that crowd, but the Chiefs lead the NFL in pass block win rate with Philly sitting 12th in that category. Mahomes’ mobility is obviously an issue, but I also expect Andy Reid to emphasize the short-passing game like he did against the Bengals, a game script which could also favor his completions or attempts prop.

Philly led the NFL in sacks this season but the Chiefs were the runner-up in that category and have plenty of firepower up front with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and emerging rookie George Karlaftis. Considering how good Mahomes is at sack avoidance, I think we’re getting some value here with Kansas City at this price.

Don’t miss our Super Bowl 57 Same Game Parlay (+1045 odds!)

Super Bowl Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+130) 

This is essentially a bet on Chiefs money line, as I do not see a scenario where Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes doesn’t win MVP. Considering the money line price is significantly shorter than +130, this is an easy decision. I believe the Eagles offense will get off to a slow start, as most Super Bowls tend to do. In fact, the last 15 games have averaged only 8.6 points in the first quarter with the last 3 games landing exactly on 10.

Jalen Hurts’ efficiency significantly drops this season when the Eagles win probability is 50% or less, which paints the picture of a QB who requires a positive game script in order to have success. It hasn’t mattered the last 2 weeks as the Eagles sprinted out to fast starts and were not faced with any pressure situations in crunch time. I do not see that being the case here, and I would pay close attention to how Hurts handles himself in the clutch moments.

I don’t have to worry about that with Patrick Mahomes, who always seems to rise to the occasion. Of course I’m concerned with his ankle and overall mobility against a ferocious Eagles front, but I have to hope that the bye week gave him just enough recovery time. This is a legacy game for Mahomes, who is trying to become the 13th QB in NFL history to win 2 Super Bowls and the first player since 1999 to win regular season and Super Bowl MVP in the same season (Kurt Warner).

In order for this bet to hit, the Chiefs have to win the game, which will also require a spirited effort from their defense and immaculate game plan from Steve Spagnuolo, who will be coaching in his 4th Super Bowl. San Francisco made the mistake of aligning both defensive tackles in a wide-9 technique, leaving the A-gap wide open for Philly to run through.  I hope Spags learns from that and allows Chris Jones to anchor the A-gap, clogging up the run game and forcing things outside. Kansas City also generates pressure at a top 5 rate, and the front 7 will have to be extra feisty against a powerful Philly offensive line.

The Chiefs secondary is playing better than you think and is 6th in DVOA against the pass since Week 16 thanks to the improvement of these four rookies: Jaylen Watson, Trent McDuffie, Bryan Cook and Joshua Williams. I see plenty of scenarios where Spags does a good job disguising coverages and confuses Jalen Hurts with some exotic blitz packages on early downs. Hurts had his lowest adjusted accuracy rate and YPA of the entire season last week against the 49ers and has only recorded 1 scramble the entire postseason, which is a clear indicator that his shoulder is less than 100%.

There’s not a lot separating these teams as the 1.5-point spread indicates, so I’ll just take the best player in the sport and hope he gets the ball last in a close game. Chiefs 26, Eagles 23.

Head our to our Super Bowl hub for even more picks and predictions for the big game

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Super Bowl 57 portfolio 

Patrick Mahomes to win MVP +130 (risk 2u)

Chiefs to have more sacks +100 (risk 1u)

NFL 2022 best bets: 12-9 (57.1%) +4.53u (+8.3% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 40-33-1 (54.7%) +6.38u (+4.1% ROI)