Andrew Wilsher
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Ladies and gentlemen, the Super Bowl is officially here! It’s been one hell of a crazy season, but here at Pickswise it’s been a year to remember. We’re currently up +22 units on sides this season thanks to our team of expert handicappers and are currently on a 4-0 run with game totals. Needless to say, our NFL handicappers have been red hot all season, and now they’re back to give you their Super Bowl Picks and Super Bowl Best Bets for the huge game between the Chiefs and Eagles. Without further ado, let’s get onto our experts’ top picks for Super Bowl 57.
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Clevta’s Super Bowl best bet: Chiefs +1.5 over Eagles (-110)
It may be a closed-minded way to look at this game, but KC is 16-3 (playoffs included) and its 3 losses have been by a combined 10 points. The Chiefs haven’t lost by more than 4 points all season. If your goal is to take the safest route possible in this game, backing a team like KC and a QB like Patrick Mahomes isn’t a bad choice.
It’s really difficult to fully evaluate this Eagles team — and especially their defense — based on them playing the single easiest schedule in the NFL. There is no doubting that the Eagles’ defense is talented, with the 2nd-best pressure rate defense in the NFL and 2 top-notch CBs in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but are they really the best pass defense in the NFL? Likely not. Philly’s weakness on defense is definitely the LB corps and I don’t see it being able to slow down Travis Kelce over the middle of the field.
Be sure to check out our full Super Bowl 57 Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
Jared Smith’s Super Bowl best bet: Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+130)
This is essentially a bet on Chiefs money line, as I do not see a scenario where Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes doesn’t win MVP. Considering the money line price is significantly shorter than +130, this is an easy decision. I believe the Eagles’ offense will get off to a slow start, as most Super Bowls tend to do. In fact, the last 15 games have averaged only 8.6 points in the first quarter with the last 3 games landing exactly on 10.
Jalen Hurts’ efficiency significantly drops this season when the Eagles win probability is 50% or less, which paints the picture of a QB who requires a positive game script in order to have success. It hasn’t mattered the last 2 weeks as the Eagles sprinted out to fast starts and were not faced with any pressure situations in crunch time. I do not see that being the case here, and I would pay close attention to how Hurts handles himself in the clutch moments.
In order for this bet to hit, the Chiefs have to win the game, which will also require a spirited effort from their defense and an immaculate game plan from Steve Spagnuolo, who will be coaching in his 4th Super Bowl. San Francisco made the mistake of aligning both defensive tackles in a wide-9 technique, leaving the A-gap wide open for Philly to run through. I hope Spags learns from that and allows Chris Jones to anchor the A-gap, clogging up the run game and forcing things outside. Kansas City also generates pressure at a top 5 rate, and the front 7 will have to be extra feisty against a powerful Philly offensive line.
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Prop Holliday’s Super Bowl best bet: Isiah Pacheco longest rush over 13.5 yards (-105)
There is a lot to like about Pacheco in this upcoming game, but I have landed on his longest rush prop. He has hit this in 5 of the last 10, but most importantly he gets an ideal matchup. The Eagles have given this up 12 times all season and in 5 straight games. We saw Christian McCaffrey break free in the NFC Championship with the entire defense expecting him to be carrying the ball. Against Kansas City, Mahomes prevents any defense from stacking the box. Pacheco is coming off his second-highest snap percentage of the season, proving that Reid is not afraid to use him when it matters most. This is my favorite play of the entire Super Bowl.
Howard Bender’s Super Bowl best bet: A.J. Brown to score a touchdown (+120)
In his first year with the Philadelphia Eagles, A.J. Brown set new career highs in targets, receptions and
receiving yards. He also had 11 touchdowns and clearly developed into Jalen Hurts’ favorite target, both
across the middle and downfield. With the Kansas City Chiefs ranking 31st in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers and having allowed an average of 81.2 receiving yards per game to them, Brown should eat and eat heartily. L’Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie are better slot-corners than they are on the outside and in man-coverage, and Brown should be able to beat either one of them for a touchdown at some point in the game.
Get fantasy guru Howard Bender’s best DFS picks for Super Bowl 57
Andrew Ortenberg’s Super Bowl best bet: Over 50.5 (-110)
I like the over in the Super Bowl for a few reasons. For starters, Patrick Mahomes’ ankle should be pretty close to 100% by the time Sunday rolls around. And even with a bum ankle, he has managed to move the ball pretty well against the Jaguars and Bengals in the last couple of games. This Eagles defense is being overestimated solely because they haven’t been tested at all recently. Their two playoff games en route to the Super Bowl were against Daniel Jones of the Giants and then a combination of Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson for San Francisco. Their last 2 regular-season games were against Davis Webb and Andy Dalton. The last time they faced a competent offense, they gave up 40 points to the Cowboys.
The only other decent quarterback the Eagles faced over the past few months besides Dak Prescott was Aaron Rodgers, and they let the Packers score 33 on them. Almost every time the Eagles have played a decent passing attack this season, the game has turned into a shootout, such as when there were 73 total points scored in their matchup against the Lions.
The Eagles have scored at least 31 in each of their playoff games, and they’ve scored at least 31 in 6 of their past 9 overall. This is going to be the third Super Bowl for Mahomes and he has played in countless big games already in his young career, so he should be comfortable and locked in right from the start. Kansas City hasn’t put up fewer than 23 points in a game since all the way back on November 6. I’m confidently taking the over in this one.
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