Ricky Dimon
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Sunday Night Football in Week 16 of the NFL season pits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas (6-8) is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but in reality this is only a big game for the Bucs since it’s only a matter of time before the ‘Boys are eliminated – regardless of Sunday night’s outcome. Tampa Bay (8-6) is hoping to remain atop the NFC South.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Cowboys predictions.
Buccaneers -6.5 alternate spread (+126)
Rachaad White to score a touchdown (+125)
Cooper Rush Over 233.5 passing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White finding the endzone would obviously work well with a big win by the Bucs. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Dallas quarterback Cooper Rush to rack up plenty of passing yards. But even if Rush does, there is no reason why Tampa Bay can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Buccaneers -6.5 alternate spread (+126)
On a neutral field, Tampa Bay appears to be at least a touchdown better than Dallas. And it’s not like playing at AT&T Stadium is any more difficult for a visiting team than playing on a neutral field. In fact, it might even be better! The Cowboys are awful at home. They have won just a single game at Jerry World this season – and that was against the New York Giants, arguably the worst team in football. More often than not, the ‘Boys get completely blown out at home. Their 1-6 record includes a ridiculous average point differential of -17 in front of their own fans. Tampa Bay is an opponent that is more than capable of taking advantage. The Bucs have won 4 in a row following last weekend’s impressive 40-17 beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers, surging into first place in the NFC South. They have outscored opponents 124-60 during this stretch. The Baker Mayfield-to-Mike Evans connection is working as well as it has all year and Tampa Bay’s defense has also improved of late. Give me the visitors to win by at least a TD.
Rachaad White to score a touchdown (+125)
White is more of a goal-line back than Bucky Irving. They have gone back and forth this season and it is Irving who leads the touchdown count overall, but White has asserted himself in recent weeks. All 3 of White’s TDs have come in the last 6 games. His carries have increased, as well, with double-digit totes in 5 consecutive contests. Having previously exceeded 10 attempts only once in 2024 (and that was back in Week 1), White has gotten at least 11 carries in 4 straight games – including 17 and 15 in the last 2. He now faces a Dallas defense that has allowed by far the most rushing touchdowns in the league (22) and is #29 in run defense.
Cooper Rush Over 233.5 passing yards (-113)
This doesn’t really conflict with a Tampa Bay win and cover, as a negative game script for Dallas would force Rush to hit the airwaves. It’s something the Cowboys will probably do, anyway, since the Bucs rank #30 in the NFL against the pass (247.7 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the run. Rush has exceeded this number twice in the last 5 outings, throwing for 247 and 354 yards in those contests. He torched the Carolina Panthers for 214 yards and 3 TDs without being picked off during last week’s 30-14 romp. If Dallas had not been leading by so much, a 300-yard performance would have been well within Rush’s reach. Asking him to throw for at least 234 on Sunday should not be too much.
