Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 2 was another wild weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To close out the Sunday portion of Week 3, we have another same game parlay, this one for a intriguing matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on NBC, it’s time to forecast the action.
Below is our SGP, and also be sure to check out our full 49ers vs Broncos picks on the side and total in addition to all of our NFL Picks.
San Francisco -1.5 (-110)
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer (+195)
Parlay odds: +553
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this game to favor the 49ers preferred style of play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110) over Denver Broncos
For the first leg in our same game parlay, I think the 49ers are being priced correctly in this matchup. San Francisco’s roster is loaded and the 49ers have the talent to potentially win the NFC. They were just a bit slow coming out of the blocks and were done no favors in a monsoon against the Bears. Last week’s drubbing of the Seahawks is more like the 49ers team I expected to see this season and I’d anticipate that to continue with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Garoppolo has proven to be steady and reliable in the regular season for San Francisco. That experience immediately showed a week ago, as he entered the game in place of the injured Trey Lance and was calm and efficient in the victory. Paired with Deebo Samuel and a stable of running backs, the 49ers should have enough variety on offense to succeed.
Given what we have seen from Nathaniel Hackett’s offense through 2 weeks, it’s difficult to imagine the Broncos putting up a ton of points in this one. Facing a 49ers defense that is loaded with talent in the front seven is not the remedy for a struggling offense. Furthermore, San Francisco has allowed the fewest passing yards per game through the first 2 weeks of the season. Needless to say, it should be difficult for the Broncos to move the ball consistently. For those reasons, I’m comfortable backing the 49ers.
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Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown scorer (+195)
While the Broncos offense has struggled to find any sort of consistency, the one constant has been Russell Wilson’s connection with Courtland Sutton. Despite the fact that he hasn’t caught a touchdown yet in 2022, Sutton has still been the focal point of Denver’s passing game. After a quiet first half in Week 1, Sutton hauled in 4 targets for 72 yards in the final 2 quarters of the loss to Seattle. The Broncos #1 receiver followed up that effort with a 7-catch performance against the Texans for 122 yards, good for over 17 yards per reception.
Much like KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, Sutton runs the deep routes well and is able to get behind the opposing secondary. However, he also has proven to be Wilson’s favorite target in the short and intermediate passing game. At this point, Sutton has done everything but catch a touchdown this season. As he’ll continue to be targeted at a high rate, I expect that to change on Sunday.
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