Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Week 6 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To close out the Sunday portion of the Week 7 slate, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this one for an AFC battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:30 pm ET on NBC, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 7 matchup.
Miami Dolphins -7 (-105)
Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (+160)
Parlay odds: +509
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this to be a great spot for the Dolphins to win at home over an overmatched opponent. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Miami Dolphins -7 (-105) over Pittsburgh Steelers
This game presented a ton of interesting narratives when the season started. Unfortunately, both Tua Tagovailoa and Kenny Pickett are recovering from concussions, and their respective teams are struggling in a loaded AFC. Mike Tomlin always gets the most out of his teams, but this year seems to be his biggest challenge. Strangely enough, this is the first time these teams have faced each other in 3 years, and this the first time the Dolphins have been favored against Pittsburgh since 2004. While there are injury concerns for both quarterbacks, the edge still tilts towards Miami regardless of if either are healthy enough to play.
All reports have indicated that Tua is expected to play, but even if he doesn’t, the Dolphins still have Teddy Bridgewater who has game experience in Mike McDaniels’ system. This is an offense that is predicated on using the run to set up the pass. Miami employs short, quick timing routes to get the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which should give the Dolphins an edge against a wounded Steelers secondary. If Pickett is starting at quarterback, the Steelers have a chance to keep this game close. However, their struggling offensive line has been unable to protect the quarterback or get the running game going thus far. Pittsburgh has solid receivers on the outside, but Pickett still needs more time in the pocket to find them. Miami should get back on track at home.
Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins predictions
Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (+160)
It’s no secret that the Steelers have been unable to get anything going on the ground this season. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has had major problems protecting the quarterback, and that’s extended to the running game as well. However, I do think that Sunday presents an opportunity for the Steelers to get Najee Harris going. This is a game that Pittsburgh will want to grind out possessions and use clock in order to stay close with Miami’s explosive offense. With that in mind, Harris will need to get at least 15-20 carries in order to achieve that goal. And while the second-year running back has only found the end zone twice this season, the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown from their opponents’ running back in 4 straight games. Look for Harris to extend that streak to 5.
Get our handicappers’ NFL Week 7 best bets — we’re 26-8 this season!
Top 3 NFL Week 7 betting offers
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
