Ricky Dimon
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Week 16 of the 2023 NFL campaign features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. Denver is still in playoff contention, but with a 7-7 record the outlook is not good. New England is a horrendous 3-11 and has long since been eliminated from having mathematical postseason possibilities. All the Pats can do now is improve their 2024 NFL Draft positioning.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Broncos predictions.
Patriots +7.5 (-115)
Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown (+155)
Ezekiel Elliott to record 70+ rushing yards (+118)
Ezekiel Elliott Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +716
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as New England running back Ezekiel Elliott having a big night at the office would obviously work well with his team keeping it close. Let’s break down each of the 4 legs.
Patriots +7.5 (-115)
It is true that the Patriots have nothing to play for and would be wise to improve their draft standing with more losses, but don’t tell head coach Bill Belichick or quarterback Bailey Zappe. Belichick is never going to be in the business of losing on purpose and neither is Zappe. In fact, Zappe recently led New England to its first victory since Week 7, winning at Pittsburgh 21-18 a couple of weeks ago. The Pats were also somewhat competitive with Kansas City during a 27-17 setback last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been in decent form of late but certainly aren’t anything special. They are milling around at .500 after dropping 2 of their last 3 contests – including a 42-17 beatdown at Detroit this past weekend. Denver’s only win during this stretch has come against…wait for it…the Chargers. Finally, this projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair (the total is set at 35.5) and both teams generally like to play conservative football. As such, 7.5 points are a lot in this particular matchup. The Patriots may not win outright, but they should be able to cover.
Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown (+155)
Obviously this whole Same Game Parlay is backing Elliott to be productive in every facet of the game on Sunday night. That includes scoring a touchdown. The veteran RB has scored only 3 TDs this season, but all 3 have come in the last 9 games – including 1 against the Steelers 2 weeks ago. He now faces a Denver defense that is among the worst units in all of football. The Broncos have played better defensively of late, but not to a massive extent. They have allowed 14 touchdowns on the ground and 25 through the air; Elliott is capable of scoring in both ways.
Ezekiel Elliott to record 70+ rushing yards (+118)
How bad is Denver’s run defense? Well, it is dead last in the league in that department with room to spare – surrendering 146.9 yards per game on an absolutely ridiculous 5.2 yards per carry. New England’s offensive plan is basically always to run the ball; that should really be the case against the Broncos. Elliott has reached the 70-yard mark only once in 2023 (he had 80 against the Jets in Week 3), but this is a great opportunity for him to get a bunch of attempts and turn those into plenty of yards.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Broncos are bad all around defensively, so it’s no surprise that they struggle to defend running backs catching balls out of the backfield. They allow the 10th-most receiving yards to RBs and the 11th-most receptions to RBs. Elliott has made 16 catches on 19 targets with yardage totals of 40, 72 and 21 over the past 3 contests. There is no reason why the former Ohio State star won’t do similar damage in the passing game at Denver’s expense. This Same Game Parlay is essentially asking Elliott to have a great game and for New England to be competitive. Getting those questions answered at more than 7/1 odds has outstanding value.
