Ricky Dimon
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It doesn’t get any bigger than this – at least not in the regular season. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions – both 14-2 – will battle for the NFC North title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs Sunday Night Football in Week 18 of the NFL campaign. That’s right; a 14-3 team will have to settle for a wild-card spot. The other, of course, will enjoy a first-round bye next weekend.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Vikings vs Lions predictions.
Lions -3 (-108)
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 100+ receiving yards (+165)
Justin Jefferson to record 100+ receiving yards (+100)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Detroit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown racking up a bunch of yards would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Lions. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing Minnesota receiver Terry McLaurin to also reach the 100-yard mark. But even if Jefferson does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Lions -3 (-108)
The Vikings can only hope that the visiting team wins both of the games between these 2 teams this season, as the Lions went into Minnesota and prevailed 31-29 back in Week 7. Obviously that was a competitive contest, but it was on the road and Detroit mostly dominated after trailing 10-0 in the first quarter. Playing at home this time, I expect head coach Dan Campbell’s team will be the superior side once again. The Lions have been a juggernaut offensively in recent weeks, scoring at least 34 points in 4 consecutive contests – including at least 40 twice during this stretch. Jared Goff has thrown for 1133 yards and 11 TDs with no interceptions in the past 3 games. Minnesota is no slouch, but I’m still not convinced by Sam Darnold to come up big in such a big situation. To put it simply, the Vikings are very good; the Lions are even better.
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 100+ receiving yards (+165)
St. Brown came up big against Minnesota in this season’s first showdown between the division rivals and he should do the same on Sunday. The USC product caught all 8 of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. For the season he has 109 receptions on 134 targets for 1186 yards and 12 scores. St. Brown now faces a Vikings defense that is #28 in the NFL against the pass at 243.6 yards per game. It’s also worth noting that when St. Brown is productive, he is usually very productive. All 4 times this season that he has gained more than 75 yards he has finished with at least 112.
Justin Jefferson to record 100+ receiving yards (+100)
This doesn’t really conflict with backing Detroit -3, as Minnesota won’t mind passing the ball if it is playing from behind much – if not all – of the way. Regardless, Jefferson should be in line for a big night against a Lions defense that ranks #31 in the league against the pass at 250.4 yards allowed per game. They are #24 in yards per pass attempt allowed at 7.4. Jefferson has amassed at least 132 yards in 2 of the past 4 contests and he is coming off a decent performance against Green Bay (8 catches on 11 targets for 92 yards). The former LSU standout failed to reach the century mark in the first matchup with Detroit, but he fared relatively well (7 receptions on 8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown). In the biggest games, teams rely heavily on their best players. Count on the Vikings doing that this weekend.
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