Ricky Dimon
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Week 11 of the 2023 NFL campaign features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos. From pretty much out of nowhere, this has actually become a decent primetime matchup. Minnesota is 6-4 thanks to a 5-game winning streak; Denver is 4-5 and has won 3 in a row.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Vikings vs Broncos predictions.
Vikings ML (+118)
T.J. Hockenson to score a touchdown (+230)
Javonte Williams Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +1139
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Vikings victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Denver RB Javonte Williams to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Vikings ML (+118)
Minnesota started its season with a 1-4 record and then lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending torn Achilles’ in Week 8. It all seemed to be going downhill for the Vikings, but then they acquired quarterback Josh Dobbs from the Cardinals and the rest is history – at least for now. Dobbs has led his new team to a pair of victories over Atlanta and New Orleans, a stretch that was preceded by defeats of Chicago, San Francisco and Green Bay. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s squad is on an absolute roll even though star receiver Justin Jefferson has been on injured reserve. Jefferson is questionable for Sunday, but the Vikings have already proven that they can win without him. Although the Broncos are playing well, too, I still don’t trust their defense despite recent improvement.
T.J. Hockenson to score a touchdown (+230)
Hockenson has been a big reason for Minnesota’s recent success. The Iowa product has scored a touchdown in 2 of the last 3 games, giving him 4 for the year. He is coming off an 11-catch, 134-yard performance against New Orleans – during which he was targeted 15 times. Hockenson has been targeted at least 12 times in 3 of the last 4 outings and he has also gained at least 86 yards in 3 of the last 4. Denver is in the middle of the road when it comes to defending tight ends, so I feel good about Hockenson being able to find the endzone.
Check out our Vikings-Broncos touchdown scorer picks
Javonte Williams Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
Minnesota’s defense is stout against both the run and the pass, so I think Denver will feature the run game since that is what it likes to do for the most part. Williams’ workload has increased massively over the last 2 weeks, with 27 carries against Kansas City followed by 21 during a Week 10 upset of Buffalo. He parlayed those chances into 85 yards and 79 yards, respectively. The former North Carolina also went for 82 yards in Week 9 against Green Bay. This is not a big number at all, so I see Williams exceeding it with relative ease.
