Caleb Wilfinger
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We’ve got a pretty high-profile matchup on our hands on Sunday Night Football in Week 14 of the NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers in a showdown that could go a long way to determining the pecking order in the AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs are looking to lock up the AFC West division title for yet another year, while the Chargers are in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race and could really use a win over their rival to boost their standing in the playoff picture.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Chargers vs Chiefs predictions.
Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
Under 43.5 (-110)
Noah Gray Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
Parlay odds: +514
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components can be correlated, if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Chiefs tight end Noah Gray finding success would work well with Kansas City covering this spread on paper. Ultiamtely, I like the value that this adds to our SGP so let’s break down each of these three legs.
Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
The Chargers survived a brutal travel spot in Atlanta a week ago, as Los Angeles was able to win on the road on a short week, despite playing one of its worst games in weeks. In fact, if not for a whopping 4 interceptions from Kirk Cousins, the Chargers don’t escape with a victory in Atlanta, which is part of why I’m confident in fading Jim Harbaugh’s team on the road this week. The first matchup between these teams saw the Chiefs emerge with a 17-10 victory, as the Chargers roster just couldn’t keep up with the two-time defending champions. Kansas City ran the ball more effectively, Patrick Mahomes outplayed Justin Herbert in the quarterback battle, the Chiefs were more efficient on 3rd down and they committed fewer penalties. I’m expecting a pretty similar script on Sunday, especially with the game being played in Arrowhead.
While the Chiefs have raced out an 11-1 record this season, the margins have been very thin for Kansas City. With that said, things historically tend to improve for Andy Reid’s teams in December. In fact, Reid’s teams have also been outstanding when given extra rest in his career, and the Chiefs are getting a full 9 days to prepare for their division rival. The same can’t be said for the Chargers, as the Bolts are competing in their 3rd game in just 14 days. The situational spot is too good to pass up here, so let’s back Kansas City to finally win a game by margin on Sunday.
Under 43.5 (-110)
The first meeting between these teams was a very low-scoring affair, and I wouldn’t expect much to be all that different this time around, especially considering the offensive woes of both sides. Kansas City’s offense has been mediocre at best for most of the season, and largely devoid of explosiveness, as the Chiefs are just 21st in yards per pass and 25th in yards per rush. We can expect some improvement to take place on the ground since Isiah Pacheco’s return gives Kansas City a two-headed monster at running back. With that said, the Chargers boast a slew of impressive defensive metrics, as the Bolts are tops in opponent points per game and opponent points per play this season.
As for the hosts, Kansas City’s defense is still grossly underrated in the market. It’s been very difficult to run on the Chiefs this season (3.7 yards per carry allowed), and even the most explosive pass offenses they’ve faced (Bengals, 49ers and Bills) have been held down to an average of 244 yards per game. Kansas City will be cold and windy on Sunday, and this battle is filled with animosity between a couple of teams that have a long history, so let’s take the under in this division rivalry matchup.
Noah Gray Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
One of the recent developments in the Chiefs offense of late has been the emergence of Noah Gray as a reliable option in the tight end room. As Travis Kelce continues to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, Gray has quietly become one of the more dependable targets for Mahomes of late, racking up a total of 12 receptions and 4 touchdowns over the Chiefs’ last 3 contests. He’ll be going up against a Chargers defense that allowed Gray to haul in 4 passes for 40 yards in the first matchup between these teams, and we can expect another solid performance from Gray in Sunday’s game.
