Patrick Mahomes vs Tom Brady. Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Could we ask for a better Sunday Night Football matchup? Brady and the Buccaneers struggled last week as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones were out, but they have the chance to bounce back against the Chiefs who were stunned by Matt Ryan and the Colts in Week 3. Let’s dive into our best same game parlay picks for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 (-110)
Over 45.5 (-115)
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+115)
Same Game Parlay odds: +575
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate plays, or have a couple of contradictory plays to boost the odds. That’s the plan here, as taking Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to find the end zone technically goes against backing the Buccaneers against the spread, when in reality I don’t believe they conflict all that much. Let me explain and break down each of these plays one by one.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 (-110) over Kansas City Chiefs
Word came down on Thursday that this game would indeed remain at the original location in Tampa Bay despite Hurricane Ian bearing down on the Florida coastline this week. That’s good news for the Bucs, considering the backup location at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis would have felt like a home game for the Chiefs. Another positive for Tampa Bay this week is the return of WRs Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones, who all got in limited practice time this week. The offensive line is a little healthier as well with Donovan Smith returning to practice.
Those are all vitality boosts to a Bucs offense that is 30th in EPA/play after three games, and has looked lifeless at times despite a 2-1 overall record. The defense is certainly the identify of this Bucs team, which will be important this week against a Chiefs offense looking to bounce back after a tough road loss against the Colts last week. Kansas City is still offense first, ranked 2nd in EPA/play with a 55.9% success rate on dropbacks. The fact that the Bucs were 2.5-point favorites when this line opened over the summer and I’m getting them now as the slimmest of home underdogs tells me there’s a hair of value on Tampa Bay.
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Over 45.5 (-115)
The field conditions will be key considering how much precipitation Florida’s west coast has received the last few days in the wake of Hurricane Ian. Overall I don’t fully trust this Bucs offense just yet, ranking near the bottom of the league in most analytical categories including 30th in EPA/play, 25th in rushing success rate and 19th in dropback success rate. This is a Tom Brady led offense with a ton of weapons that has really been hampered by injuries and inconsistent play. The Chiefs offense is humming right now despite their relatively low-scoring output against the Colts last week
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA+CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) through 3 games and looks to be in sync with a new but talented wide receiver group. Tampa’s defense has been stout this season, but they’ve been fortunate in facing a Cowboys offense without a ton of weapons in a game where Dak Prescott got hurt, then Jameis Winston, and finally Aaron Rodgers missing a ton of his weapons at wide receiver. It will be a much different challenge this week against a polished and healthy Chiefs attack, which is why I think this total might be a little low.
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+115)
Travis Kelce has been the safest option for Patrick Mahomes this season. With several new receivers in Kansas City this season, Kelce is the most familiar face to Mahomes. The tight end has 2 touchdowns on the season and has 17 receptions for 230 yards. He’s been targeted 8 times in the red zone this season – tied for the 3rd-most in football. The veteran leads the Chiefs in red zone targets and catches as he’s caught 4 of those 8 red-zone passes. The Tampa Bay secondary will have their hands full with Kansas City’s weapons, and I think Kelce finds a way to the end zone on Sunday Night Football.
Don’t miss our Sunday Night Football touchdown scorer best bets!
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