Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
We have what shapes up to be a stellar primetime matchup — thank goodness! — with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Los Angeles Chargers for Sunday Night Football in Week 11. This is a rematch of a Week 2 contest in Kansas City, where the Chiefs prevailed 27-24. At 7-2, they hold a 2-game lead in the AFC West over the 5-4 Chargers, so this is an absolute must-win situation for the Bolts if they want to stay in the division race — especially since they currently trail in the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Below is our SGP for SNF, and also be sure to check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers picks on the side and total.
Over 52.5 (+100)
Isaiah Pacheco Over 64.5 rushing yards (+125)
Justin Herbert 3+ touchdown passes (+215)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Isiah Pachecho rushing for a fair amount of yards Justin Herbert throwing at least a trio of touchdown passes would obviously work well with an over bet. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Over 52.5 (+100)
It’s hard to see Patrick Mahomes and company settling for 3 field goals inside the 10-yard-line this week, which is what they did against Jacksonville in Week 10. On the other side of the ball, it is true that the Chiefs’ defense looked good against a solid Jaguars offensive line – holding the run game in check and allowing just 5.2 yards per play overall. But the Chargers’ run game has the 4th-lowest success rate in the NFL this season (35.9%), so there is no reason to think they will lean on it too much in this matchup unless they are having early success. Kansas City’s defense has been shaky against the pass in 2022, allowing a 101.9 opponent rating and 19 passing touchdowns. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are questionable for the home team, but both wide receivers practiced in full on Friday and that means you have to think they will play. If that’s the case, a shootout is even more likely.
Isiah Pacheco Over 64.5 rushing yards (+125)
Pacheco has established himself as RB1 in Kansas City, and being “1” at any position on the Chiefs’ offense is pretty much always a good thing when it comes to production. In 4 games this year, he has racked up at least 62 yards – including 82 yards on a season-high 16 carries. Now the 7th-round pick out of Rutgers faces a Chargers defense that positively stinks against the run. LA is 3rd-to-last in rushing defense (146.8 ypg) and 2nd-to-last in yards per attempt allowed (5.4). Count on Pacheco’s rise continuing.
Justin Herbert 3+ touchdown passes (+215)
Although the outcomes in this head-to-head matchup have not always been ideal for Los Angeles, individual success is the norm for Herbert. In the first game of his NFL career, he threw for 311 yards against Kansas City, and in the season finale that year, he tossed 3 touchdown passes. In 2021, he threw for 6 scores in the 2 meetings between the division rivals. Earlier this season he completed 33 of 48 passes for 334 yards and 3 TDs. With Herbert in the midst of another impressive year and given that he is expected to have both Allen and Williams back at his disposal, getting another 3-touchdown effort at this price is a steal.
NFL Week 11 Promo Codes
- FanDuel Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $125 in Free Bets – Guaranteed! — PICKSWISE EXCLUSIVE
- BetMGM Promo Code: Bet $10 Win $200 if either NFL Team scores a TD
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins
- Caesars Promo Code: Up To $1,250 Back On Your First Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
- PointsBet Promo Code: Get 4x $200 Second-Chance Bets For The NFL
Find all the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes and Bonuses for NFL Week 11, including sportsbooks live in your state.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
