Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 13 of the NFL campaign features a fascinating matchup between a pair of teams on the rise in the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs stay hot or will the Packers thrust themselves into the NFC playoff picture with a huge home victory?
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:15 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Packers predictions.
Chiefs -6 (-108)
Under 42.5 (-105)
Jordan Love to record 225+ passing yards (+102)
Parlay odds: +784
Chiefs -6 (-108)
After a putrid start to the year, the Packers pulled off a huge upset over the Lions on Thanksgiving, and did so rather easily. There’s no denying how strong a performance it was for the first-year full-time starter, but it was also a perfect storm. The Lions’ secondary was already a soft spot and Love was able to pick apart a unit that had been struggling mightily. Unfortunately for Green Bay, it’ll be a different set of circumstances entirely against the Chiefs, who continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.
After being down 14-0 against the Raiders last week in the 2nd quarter, Kansas City’s defense held them to just 3 points for the remainder of the game. I’m expecting that the Chiefs will primarily play man coverage against Green Bay, but the key difference is that they’re one of the best teams in the NFL at it compared to Detroit’s lowly secondary. Furthermore, the Chiefs have work to do to keep up with the Ravens for the coveted 1-seed in the AFC, and to do so they’ll need to make sure they don’t slide down against a surging Packers side. We’ll take the Chiefs inside a touchdown, even at Lambeau.
Under 42.5 (-105)
It should be a cold, damp night in Wisconsin, plus we have to consider the voodoo hex of primetime unders and their ridiculous hit rate in 2023. If we think the Chiefs are able to shut down Jordan Love in a way that the Lions couldn’t, we’re much better off taking the under in this spot. It feels like a letdown spot for Green Bay in every way. They’re going from a bitter rival who made a strategic mistake defensively and never adjusted, to stepping up drastically in competition, even if it is at home. If Love continues to find success, Andy Reid and the Chiefs will adjust. They’re just simply not going to sit on their hands the way the Lions mostly did defensively. Let’s also not forget that Kansas City’s offense has not exactly been lighting it up of late either. I’ll be backing the under in this one.
Jordan Love to record 225+ passing yards (+102)
Jordan Love was tremendous on Thanksgiving Day, putting together the best game of his career in the win, as he finished with 325 yards and 3 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 125.5. The Packers quarterback has quietly been on a streak of games where he has cleared this number, as Love has recorded at least 228 passing yards in 5 consecutive contests, including games against solid pass defenses in the Steelers and Rams. I expect Green Bay to be playing from behind in this one, so that game script also helps our over here.
