Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
We’ve got a pretty unique matchup on our hands on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 of the NFL season. The Minnesota Vikings are hosting the Indianapolis Colts in a showdown between a couple of teams that could really use a win to steady the course on their respective seasons. Minnesota has dropped two straight games after a 5-0 start, while the Colts are in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 4-4.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Colts vs Vikings predictions.
Vikings -5 (-110)
Josh Downs to score a touchdown (+270)
Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components don’t need to be correlated, which will lead to bigger payouts. That is the entire plan here, as Colts wide receiver Josh Downs finding the endzone would not work well with the Vikings covering this spread on paper. However, I like the value that this adds to our SGP so let’s break down both legs.
Vikings -5 (-110)
Earlier this week, the Colts announced that Joe Flacco would take over as quarterback after Anthony Richardson’s less-than-impressive performance against Houston. The veteran gives the Colts offense a new spark, as Indianapolis scored 27 points per game and averaged 358 yards with Flacco under center earlier this season. The longtime quarterback also brings some much-needed experience, something his predecessor severely lacked. Despite all of that, it’s hard to overlook taking the Vikings at home in a good spot on Sunday night. Minnesota took the NFL by storm in the first five weeks of the season, cruising past opponents by a 12.6-point average margin, before some regression hit the Vikings en route to a pair of losses against the Lions and Rams.
Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense continue to put up big numbers, sitting inside the top-10 in nearly every offensive statistic, and Darnold is averaging 8.6 yards per pass on the season. Furthermore, Kevin O’Connell profiles as the type of head coach who will have his guys playing at their absolute best following a bye, as evidenced by their last couple of wins when coming off extended rest. On the other side, the Colts are an aggressive team, and Flacco will likely challenge defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his pass rush. With that said, Minnesota’s defense is considerably better than Indianapolis’, and the Vikings rarely allow explosive plays (0.295 points per play this season). Given that this game is in Minnesota and the Vikings are coming off extended rest, they should pull away and cover this number.
Josh Downs to score a touchdown (+270)
Out of all of the Colts players on offense, Josh Downs is probably the one that benefits the most from Flacco being named the team’s starting quarterback. In just a pair of games with Flacco starting this season, Downs has been targeted 21 times and has registered 16 receptions for 135 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Even after coming into a game against the Steelers that was already in progress, Flacco immediately found Downs and continued to look his way, connecting with the young wideout a whopping 7 times in that contest. Therefore, Downs has has been a major focal point of the offense in all three games in which Flacco has gotten a significant number of the snaps at quarterback. That trend should continue on Saturday against a Vikings defense that has struggled recently, particularly when they bring pressure. This price on Downs is simply too good to pass up at the current number.
