Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 7 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To close out the Sunday portion of the Week 8 slate, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this one for a battle between the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:20 pm ET on NBC, it’s time to forecast the action.
Here is our SGP, but also be sure to check out our NFL picks on the side and total for every Week 8 matchup.
Green Bay Packers +10.5 (-110)
Under 47.5 (-105)
Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
Parlay odds: +747
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. In this instance, I’m projecting this to be a great spot to back a desperate Packers team. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Green Bay Packers +10.5 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills
The Packers do not look like a competent football team of late. Green Bay continues to struggle on offense, and these offensive issues have reared their ugly head in 3 straight losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders. Now sitting at 3-4, Aaron Rodgers and company hardly look like a fringe playoff team, to say nothing of the Super Bowl contenders they were the last few seasons. That brings us to this week’s matchup against what is clearly the best overall team in football, the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo ranks 1st in weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders and seems to be rolling en route to another AFC East title.
It’s clear this is about as low as the betting market will go on Green Bay. In fact, Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog as a starter in his NFL career. Throughout his tenure in Wisconsin, the Packers have only been more than a 7-point underdog in just 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games came when Rodgers did not start under center. This is uncharted territory for the Packers. However, Matt LaFleur is 10-4 against the number as an underdog in his time as Green Bay’s coach. With a top 10 pass defense DVOA, Green Bay is capable of quelling this explosive Buffalo offense just enough to keep this within single digits. In a desperate spot, I’ll hold my nose and back the Packers to stay competitive.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Under 47.5 (-105)
Due to the excellence of this Bills offense, their games tend to skew toward higher totals. However, Buffalo’s top-ranked defense makes it quite hard for these games to get close to 50 points. That’s exactly where we sit at in this contest, and I think an under correlates well with the Packers covering this 10.5-point spread. Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to the run, ranking near the bottom of the league in rush defense DVOA. However, that’s not what Buffalo typically tries to do against its opponents.
Against this solid pass defense, Josh Allen will need to take the short and intermediate throws in order to methodically move the ball downfield, limiting the chances for explosive plays. On the other side, the connection between Rodgers and his wide receivers has clearly been out of sync, hampering Green Bay’s ability in the passing game. Look for the Packers to try and shorten the game by running the ball and grinding out the clock on the road.
Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen have a connection unlike many other quarterbacks and receivers in today’s NFL. That connection has translated for 3 seasons now, including this year, as Diggs has been rolling in 2022. Diggs has 6 touchdowns in as many games this fall, to go along with 49 receptions and 656 receiving yards. The Bills top wideout is a target machine and Allen makes sure to find him throughout each game. While the Packers defense is solid, Buffalo can advance the ball on any unit and should do just that on Sunday. Additionally, if the game ends up being closer than anticipated, you can expect Allen to keep looking for his favorite target in the red zone.
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